Week 1 report · Thu, Sep 3 · 2026 Week 1
Akron
1–7 · Ours #129 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
16–38FinalWe had AKR 12 – WAKE 39
Wake Forest
7–1 · Ours #60 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WAKE 95%WAKE won
WAKE 95%WAKE wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WAKE −24.5.WAKE −27.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −26.9 · AKR covered by 5.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.6.50.5final 54 · over by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WAKE −24.5Lbeat the close by 3.0
WAKE −24.5Lbeat the close by 3.0Quarterbacksthis game
Cibastian Broughton21/26 · 111 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0732nd pct
- Comp %
- 80.8
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Relieved in Q4 by Brayden Roggow
Gio Lopez21/32 · 350 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5688th pct
- Comp %
- 65.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Akronoffense | Played like WAKE +16.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWake Forest | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63rd | 45.5%▲7.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.5%▼5.1 | 37th |
| 48th | +0.04▲0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.08 | 52nd |
| 62nd | +0.18▲0.37 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.16 | 38th |
| 26th | −0.13▼0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.13▼0.02 | 74th |
| 79th | 0▲1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
| Wake Forestoffense | defenseAkron | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52nd | 42.2%▼10.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.2%▲3.4 | 48th |
| 90th | +0.41▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.26 | 10th |
| 91st | +0.61▲0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.61▼0.56 | 9th |
| 61st | +0.12▼0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.02 | 39th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| AkronAKR | Wake ForestWAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2311th | Own 3057th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.3 pts56th | −1.3 pts18th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3310th | 4524th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −0.948th | +0.952nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts15th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WAKE +6.3: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.4, kicking −1.2, 4th downs +1.7, penalty first downs +0.8. | −6.322nd | +6.378th |
Season so far
Akron1–7 · 104th-hardest schedule
Lat Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5
at Wake Forest16–38covered +27.5Wvs Robert Morris45–10covered −26.5
L
at Minnesota7–41missed +23
at Minnesota7–41missed +23L
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5
vs UNLV10–38missed +13.5L
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7
at Central Michigan17–41missed +7L
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5
vs Eastern Michigan23–25covered +5.5L
at Miami (OH)14–34missed +9.5
at Miami (OH)14–34missed +9.5L
at Kent State20–35missed +3
at Kent State20–35missed +3Wake Forest7–1 · 81st-hardest schedule
Wvs Akron38–16missed −27.5
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5W
at Purdue38–36missed −3
at Purdue38–36missed −3L
vs Miami20–33covered +20
vs Miami20–33covered +20W
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5W
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5W
at NC State38–14covered −3.5
at NC State38–14covered −3.5W
at California41–7covered −10.5
at California41–7covered −10.5W
vs Virginia51–7covered −13.5
vs Virginia51–7covered −13.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 3, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is