Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Wake Forest
7–1 · Ours #47 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–36FinalWe had WAKE 29 – PUR 25
Purdue
3–4 · Ours #86 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WAKE 60%WAKE won
WAKE 60%WAKE wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at WAKE −4.WAKE −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4 · PUR covered by 1
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.4.51final 74 · over by 23
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.PUR +4.5Wbeat the close by 1.5
PUR +4.5Wbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Gio Lopez16/27 · 225 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0444th pct
- Comp %
- 59.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Ryan Browne32/42 · 329 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2970th pct
- Comp %
- 76.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Wake Forestoffense | Played like PUR +8.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defensePurdue | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | 52.6%▲1.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.6%▼2.8 | 16th |
| 63rd | +0.14▼0.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.14▲0.07 | 38th |
| 49th | +0.04▼0.46 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.04▲0.32 | 51st |
| 73rd | +0.20▼0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.23 | 27th |
| 79th | 0▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Purdueoffense | defenseWake Forest | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85th | 52.9%▲10.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.9%▼13.6 | 15th |
| 83rd | +0.31▲0.28 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.31▼0.39 | 17th |
| 73rd | +0.29▲0.16 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.30 | 27th |
| 88th | +0.34▲0.41 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.55 | 12th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Wake ForestWAKE | PurduePUR | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3583rd | Own 3994th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.0 pts94th | −1.0 pts23rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5745th | 6876th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +4.063rd | −4.037th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.8 pts89th | +0.7 pts86th |
Season so far
Wake Forest7–1 · 81st-hardest schedule
W
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5Wat Purdue38–36missed −3
at Purdue38–36missed −3L
vs Miami20–33covered +20
vs Miami20–33covered +20W
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5W
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5W
at NC State38–14covered −3.5
at NC State38–14covered −3.5W
at California41–7covered −10.5
at California41–7covered −10.5W
vs Virginia51–7covered −13.5
vs Virginia51–7covered −13.5Purdue3–4 · 4th-hardest schedule
Wvs Indiana State44–19missed −35
Lvs Wake Forest36–38covered +3
vs Wake Forest36–38covered +3L
at UCLA38–52missed +13.5
at UCLA38–52missed +13.5L
vs Notre Dame10–49missed +27.5
vs Notre Dame10–49missed +27.5W
at Illinois24–17covered +9.5
at Illinois24–17covered +9.5W
vs Minnesota41–13covered +2.5
vs Minnesota41–13covered +2.5L
vs Washington26–38missed −3
vs Washington26–38missed −3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is