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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Georgia Tech

2–5 FBS · ACC · this season
Rating
−3.7
Rank
87
Résumé
123
Projected wins
3.2▼ 2.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3ColoradoCOLOGT −12.7GT −6.5L 13–1453GT · L
Sat, Sep 129/12TennesseeTENNGT +5.0GT +13.0L 24–4521GT · L
Sat, Sep 199/19MercerMercerGT −31.8GT −38.5W 44–1166
Sat, Sep 269/26at StanfordSTANGT −5.5GT −5.5L 27–3438STAN · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10DukeDUKEGT +3.7GT +7.0W 28–2549GT · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Virginia TechVTGT +6.2GT +9.5L 24–3460GT · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24Boston CollegeBCGT −10.0GT −5.5L 27–4929GT · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at PittsburghPITTGT +9.7GT +7.5PITT −7.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7LouisvilleLOUGT +9.2—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at ClemsonCLEMGT +5.2—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Wake ForestWAKEGT +14.6—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at GeorgiaUGAGT +32.1—wk 13

Model on GT games: 2–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 2–2 · home 2–3, away 0–1 · avg gap to the market +3.7 · closer than the market 1 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.22–5 banked, 5 to play · preseason 6.0
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 1.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1057th
Success rate45.1%44th
Pass EPA+0.1159th
Rush EPA+0.1055th
Explosive rate16.5%8th
Quality-drive rate54.8%43rd
Points per quality drive3.888th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.20129th
Success allowed44.7%111th
Pass EPA allowed+0.20117th
Rush EPA allowed+0.20128th
Explosive allowed13.6%106th
Havoc rate11.4%122nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.124th
Turnover margin−8130th · exp. −5.0
Field position margin−3.1 yd117th
Hidden points / game−7.8gave up
Luck, wins−0.42.4 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected−6.8%121st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−3.787th
Schedule played+2.048th
Schedule remaining+10.814th
Full schedule+6.024th
Pregame expected wins2.0of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 87th · −3.7Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUGTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Georgia Techoff +0.10 57thdef +0.20 allowed · 129th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.