Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:45 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Virginia
4–4 · Ours #57Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
17–33Our projected score
AP #14Wake Forest
6–1 · Ours #11Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.WAKE 84%
WAKE 84%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.WAKE −13.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −14.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.48oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 49.3 · opened 49.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.WAKE −13.5-105 DraftKings51% to cover · -0.2% EV
WAKE −13.5-105 DraftKings51% to cover · -0.2% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Beau PribulaSenior · 8 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0386th
- Comp %
- 64.3
- TD
- 13
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 22
Gio LopezJunior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.377th
- Comp %
- 67.6
- TD
- 18
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 10
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Wake Forestoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseVirginia | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6th | +0.28 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.06 | 81st |
| 16th | 49.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 40.1% | 53rd |
| 4th | +0.39 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.03 | 66th |
| 29th | +0.15 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.09 | 96th |
| 3rd | 18.0% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.7% | 74th |
| Virginiaoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseWake Forest | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72nd | +0.07 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.01 | 54th |
| 44th | 45.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 41.4% | 69th |
| 70th | +0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.07 | 81st |
| 81st | +0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.07 | 28th |
| 105th | 11.1% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 8.8% | 10th |
Team stats
| Wake ForestWAKE | VirginiaUVA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −0.393rd | +0.565th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +3.135th | +1.951st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 67%2nd | 44%109th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.9312th | 4.6924th |
| Time of possession | 27:5494th | 32:0014th |
| Plays per game | 6580th | 6757th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +6 | +3 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 3 – 9 | 9 – 12 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 15.6%36th | 15.6%35th |
Season so far
Virginia4–4 · 50th-hardest schedule
W
vs NC State34–8covered −4
vs NC State34–8covered −4Wvs Norfolk State59–3covered −46.5
L
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5
vs West Virginia27–38missed −10.5W
vs Delaware42–3covered −20
vs Delaware42–3covered −20L
at Florida State7–38missed −1
at Florida State7–38missed −1W
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14
vs Syracuse28–25missed −14L
at SMU13–23push +10
at SMU13–23push +10L
vs Duke16–19missed −2.5
vs Duke16–19missed −2.5Wake Forest6–1 · 87th-hardest schedule
W
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5
vs Akron38–16missed −27.5W
at Purdue38–36missed −3
at Purdue38–36missed −3L
vs Miami20–33covered +20
vs Miami20–33covered +20W
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5
at Louisville30–27covered +11.5W
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5
vs Stanford57–3covered −14.5Wat NC State38–14covered −3.5
at NC State38–14covered −3.5W
at California41–7covered −10.5
at California41–7covered −10.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is