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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs OSU · Sat, Oct 31 · 7:30 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

USC

6–2 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+9.3
Rank
28
Résumé
29
Projected wins
7.8
CFP odds
6%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29San José StateSJSUUSC −27.3USC −38.5W 42–2688SJSU · W
Fri, Sep 49/4Fresno StateFRESUSC −23.9USC −22.5W 39–095USC · W
Sat, Sep 129/12LouisianaULUSC −33.5USC −30.0W 49–3039UL · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at RutgersRUTGUSC −24.1USC −24.5W 42–3553RUTG · W
Sat, Sep 269/26OregonOREUSC PKUSC +1.0L 27–4140USC · L
Sat, Oct 310/3WashingtonWASHUSC −9.3USC −9.5W 25–2147WASH · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Penn StatePSUUSC −2.2USC +1.5W 31–2365USC · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at WisconsinWISUSC −0.8USC −3.0L 7–2444WIS · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31Ohio StateOSUUSC +12.0USC +6.5OSU −6.5Pass
Sat, Nov 1411/14at IndianaIUUSC +9.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21MarylandMDUSC −19.1—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at UCLAUCLAUSC +3.0—wk 13

Model on USC games: 7–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 6–1 · home 3–1, away 4–0 · avg gap to the market +3.4 · closer than the market 4 of 8

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.86–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 7.8
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins21%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP6%
First-round bye1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 22% with a win vs Ohio State, 2% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Minnesota over Indiana — swings a CFP bid between 6% and 9%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1826th
Success rate50.4%8th
Pass EPA+0.3312th
Rush EPA+0.01101st
Explosive rate12.6%67th
Quality-drive rate66.2%5th
Points per quality drive4.537th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.12105th
Success allowed41.3%66th
Pass EPA allowed+0.23123rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0158th
Explosive allowed11.1%63rd
Havoc rate12.1%114th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.369th
Turnover margin−5113th · exp. −2.5
Field position margin+1.3 yd61st
Hidden points / game+0.7banked
Luck, wins+0.85.2 earned
One-score record3–0flipped 3–5
Rush rate over expected−7.4%126th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+9.328th
Schedule played+1.457th
Schedule remaining+12.94th
Full schedule+5.235th
Pregame expected wins3.2of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 28th · +9.3AP NRWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUSCgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
USCoff +0.18 26thdef +0.12 allowed · 105th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.