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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at PUR · Sat, Nov 7 · 12:30 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Maryland

2–6 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
−4.1
Rank
90
Résumé
117
Projected wins
3.4▼ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5HamptonHamptonMD −27.5MD −45.5W 62–090
Sat, Sep 129/12at UConnCONNMD +4.7MD −13.0W 38–1475CONN · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Virginia TechVTMD −5.8MD +3.0L 26–3548MD · L
Sat, Sep 269/26UCLAUCLAMD +0.7MD +2.0L 3–5427MD · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at NebraskaNEBMD +18.0MD +14.5L 23–4822NEB · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Ohio StateOSUMD +32.9MD +35.0L 16–4533MD · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17RutgersRUTGMD −10.0MD −4.5L 30–3739MD · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31IllinoisILLMD +5.6MD +2.5L 17–20—ILL · W
Sat, Nov 711/7at PurduePURMD +3.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14WisconsinWISMD +13.6—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at USCUSCMD +19.1—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Penn StatePSUMD +7.6—wk 13

Model on MD games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 1–3 · home 1–4, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +5.5 · closer than the market 1 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.42–6 banked, 4 to play · preseason 4.2
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0397th
Success rate39.8%107th
Pass EPA+0.0198th
Rush EPA+0.0681st
Explosive rate12.7%64th
Quality-drive rate49.3%83rd
Points per quality drive3.5103rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.12106th
Success allowed44.7%111th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0781st
Rush EPA allowed+0.17122nd
Explosive allowed12.1%81st
Havoc rate14.7%55th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.397th
Turnover margin+530th · exp. +3.0
Field position margin−0.1 yd79th
Hidden points / game−1.3gave up
Luck, wins−0.92.9 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected−8.7%130th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−4.190th
Schedule played+6.923rd
Schedule remaining+5.742nd
Full schedule+6.420th
Pregame expected wins2.9of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 90th · −4.1Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMDgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Marylandoff +0.03 97thdef +0.12 allowed · 106th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.