Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Louisiana
5–3 · Ours #94 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–49FinalWe had UL 13 – USC 46
AP #14USC
6–2 · Ours #6 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USC 98%USC won
USC 98%USC wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USC −28.5.USC −31oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −33.5 · UL covered by 12
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.1.59final 79 · over by 20
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UL +30Wlost 1.0 to the close
UL +30Wlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Lunch Winfield16/22 · 212 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6592nd pct
- Comp %
- 72.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Jayden Maiava19/30 · 261 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.8096th pct
- Comp %
- 63.3
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Louisianaoffense | Played like UL +5.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUSC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23rd | 34.1%▼8.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.1%▲5.9 | 77th |
| 92nd | +0.44▲0.40 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.44 | 8th |
| 88th | +0.56▲0.64 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.56▼0.44 | 12th |
| 89th | +0.35▲0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.35▼0.47 | 11th |
| 79th | 0▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| USCoffense | defenseLouisiana | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79th | 50.7%▼0.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.7%▼12.2 | 21st |
| 69th | +0.19▼0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.27 | 31st |
| 93rd | +0.64▲0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.64▼0.80 | 7th |
| 23rd | −0.15▼0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.13 | 77th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LouisianaUL | USCUSC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2740th | Own 3058th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.2 pts79th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4118th | 6978th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −2.742nd | +2.758th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +0.5 pts78th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USC +1.5: turnovers −2.6, field position +0.9, kicking −0.8, 4th downs +0.6, penalty first downs −0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −1.542nd | +1.558th |
Season so far
Louisiana5–3 · 120th-hardest schedule
Wvs Lamar38–7covered −20.5
Lat USC30–49covered +31
at USC30–49covered +31W
vs UAB21–14push −7
vs UAB21–14push −7W
at Charlotte34–7covered −9.5
at Charlotte34–7covered −9.5W
vs Arkansas State23–20missed −5
vs Arkansas State23–20missed −5L
at Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3
at Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3W
vs Troy33–6covered −3
vs Troy33–6covered −3L
at Southern Miss31–35missed −10
at Southern Miss31–35missed −10USC6–2 · 55th-hardest schedule
W
vs San José State42–26missed −38.5
vs San José State42–26missed −38.5W
vs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5
vs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5Wvs Louisiana49–30missed −31
vs Louisiana49–30missed −31W
at Rutgers42–35missed −21
at Rutgers42–35missed −21L
vs Oregon27–41missed +3.5
vs Oregon27–41missed +3.5W
vs Washington25–21missed −7.5
vs Washington25–21missed −7.5W
at Penn State31–23covered −1
at Penn State31–23covered −1L
at Wisconsin7–24missed −2.5
at Wisconsin7–24missed −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 9:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is