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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Washington

4–3 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+3.3
Rank
53
Résumé
80
Projected wins
5.9▼ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sun, Sep 69/6Washington StateWSUWASH −13.4WASH −23.5W 24–1055WSU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12Utah StateUSUWASH −32.6WASH −26.5W 16–1452WASH · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Eastern WashingtonEastern WashingtonWASH −38.4WASH −43.0W 48–1676
Sat, Sep 269/26MinnesotaMINNWASH −8.7WASH −9.5L 24–2745WASH · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at USCUSCWASH +9.3WASH +9.5L 21–2553WASH · W
Fri, Oct 910/9IowaIOWAWASH PKWASH −2.5L 24–4137IOWA · W
Fri, Oct 1610/16at PurduePURWASH −2.6WASH +3.0W 38–2670WASH · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at NebraskaNEBWASH +9.9WASH +7.5NEB −7.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7Penn StatePSUWASH −2.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Michigan StateMSUWASH −3.1—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21IndianaIUWASH +12.1—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at OregonOREWASH +10.2WASH +15.5wk 13

Model on WASH games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 4–0 · home 0–2, away 4–0 · avg gap to the market +4.9 · closer than the market 4 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.94–3 banked, 5 to play · preseason 6.7
Bowl (6+)28%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 1.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0681st
Success rate44.3%55th
Pass EPA+0.1550th
Rush EPA−0.07125th
Explosive rate13.9%38th
Quality-drive rate50.0%74th
Points per quality drive4.352nd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0336th
Success allowed40.0%50th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0368th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0817th
Explosive allowed10.8%44th
Havoc rate17.1%16th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game0.082nd
Turnover margin+435th · exp. +2.0
Field position margin−2.4 yd111th
Hidden points / game+0.9banked
Luck, wins−0.34.3 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 5–2
Rush rate over expected−11.3%134th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+3.353rd
Schedule played+1.654th
Schedule remaining+9.523rd
Full schedule+5.236th
Pregame expected wins2.9of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 53rd · +3.3AP NRWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUWASHgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Washingtonoff +0.06 81stdef −0.03 allowed · 36th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.