Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Louisiana

5–3 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−0.5
Rank
69
Résumé
73
Projected wins
7.7▲ 2.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5LamarLamarUL −25.7UL −20.5W 38–780
Sat, Sep 129/12at USCUSCUL +33.5UL +30.0L 30–4962UL · W
Sat, Sep 199/19UABUABUL −2.8UL −9.0W 21–1454UAB · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at CharlotteCLTUL −7.0UL −13.5W 34–769CLT · L
Sat, Oct 310/3Arkansas StateARSTUL −5.4UL −6.5W 23–2062ARST · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Louisiana TechLTUL PKUL +2.5L 31–3239UL · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17TroyTROYUL −5.7UL −4.5W 33–662UL · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Southern MissUSMUL −7.8UL −10.5L 31–3548USM · W
Thu, Nov 1211/12at UL MonroeULMUL −14.4—wk 11

Model on UL games: 6–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 5–1 · home 2–1, away 4–0 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.75–3 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)90%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game10%
Win conference5%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0965th
Success rate42.3%74th
Pass EPA−0.00103rd
Rush EPA+0.1527th
Explosive rate10.4%121st
Quality-drive rate54.0%51st
Points per quality drive4.445th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0146th
Success allowed42.0%76th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0151st
Rush EPA allowed+0.0054th
Explosive allowed10.7%41st
Havoc rate12.3%107th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.338th
Turnover margin+620th · exp. +2.5
Field position margin+4.6 yd21st
Hidden points / game+2.4banked
Luck, wins+0.64.4 earned
One-score record2–2flipped 5–3
Rush rate over expected+5.7%16th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.569th
Schedule played−6.3122nd
Schedule remaining−9.8125th
Full schedule−7.6125th
Pregame expected wins4.5of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 69th · −0.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUULgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Louisianaoff +0.09 65thdef −0.01 allowed · 46th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.