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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Rutgers

2–6 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
−8.4
Rank
108
Résumé
127
Projected wins
2.8▼ 2.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3MassachusettsMASSRUTG −30.2RUTG −29.5L 21–3733RUTG · L
Fri, Sep 119/11at Boston CollegeBCRUTG +3.0RUTG +3.5L 21–2845RUTG · L
Sat, Sep 199/19USCUSCRUTG +24.1RUTG +24.5L 35–4248RUTG · W
Fri, Sep 259/25HowardHowardRUTG −36.1RUTG −42.0W 58–774
Sat, Oct 310/3IndianaIURUTG +22.9RUTG +24.0L 15–477RUTG · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at MarylandMDRUTG +10.0RUTG +4.5W 37–3062MD · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at NorthwesternNURUTG +19.9RUTG +15.5L 14–4223NU · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31MichiganMICHRUTG +17.8RUTG +14.0L 21–28—MICH · L
Sat, Nov 711/7at WisconsinWISRUTG +23.9—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14NebraskaNEBRUTG +21.1—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Penn StatePSURUTG +18.0—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Michigan StateMSURUTG +7.9—wk 13

Model on RUTG games: 2–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–3 · as the dog 1–2 · home 2–3, away 0–2 · avg gap to the market +2.4 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
2.82–6 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.0
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 0.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1059th
Success rate44.5%54th
Pass EPA+0.0965th
Rush EPA+0.1050th
Explosive rate12.9%61st
Quality-drive rate51.5%66th
Points per quality drive3.789th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.20128th
Success allowed48.7%132nd
Pass EPA allowed+0.15105th
Rush EPA allowed+0.24134th
Explosive allowed16.8%136th
Havoc rate13.0%91st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.185th
Turnover margin−7124th · exp. −5.5
Field position margin−4.2 yd122nd
Hidden points / game−6.3gave up
Luck, wins−1.53.5 earned
One-score record1–3flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected+2.2%38th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−8.4108th
Schedule played+3.836th
Schedule remaining+7.035th
Full schedule+4.938th
Pregame expected wins1.9of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 108th · −8.4Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMURUTGgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Rutgersoff +0.10 59thdef +0.20 allowed · 128th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.