Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Washington
4–3 · Ours #57 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–25FinalWe had WASH 23 – USC 32
AP #18USC
6–2 · Ours #20 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USC 72%USC won
USC 72%USC wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USC −9.USC −7.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.3 · WASH covered by 3.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.9.58final 46 · under by 12
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WASH +9.5Wbeat the close by 2.0
WASH +9.5Wbeat the close by 2.0Quarterbacksthis game
Demond Williams Jr.15/26 · 198 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2022nd pct
- Comp %
- 57.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Jayden Maiava21/34 · 245 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0545th pct
- Comp %
- 61.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Washingtonoffense | Played like WASH +0.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUSC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44th | 40.4%▼2.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.4%▼1.3 | 56th |
| 52nd | +0.06▲0.08 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.06▼0.01 | 48th |
| 32nd | −0.12▼0.22 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.33 | 68th |
| 81st | +0.27▲0.47 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.38 | 19th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| USCoffense | defenseWashington | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52nd | 42.0%▼10.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.0%▼1.9 | 49th |
| 46th | +0.03▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.03▼0.06 | 54th |
| 50th | +0.05▼0.43 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.04 | 50th |
| 43rd | 0.00▲0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | 0.00▼0.08 | 57th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.6 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| WashingtonWASH | USCUSC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2525th | Own 2314th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.1 pts78th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5745th | 6978th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.354th | −1.346th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.2 pts96th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USC +0.9: turnovers −2.6, field position −0.6, kicking +0.8, 4th downs −0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −0.946th | +0.954th |
Season so far
Washington4–3 · 53rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Washington State24–10missed −24
vs Washington State24–10missed −24W
vs Utah State16–14missed −28
vs Utah State16–14missed −28Wvs Eastern Washington48–16missed −43
L
vs Minnesota24–27missed −12
vs Minnesota24–27missed −12Lat USC21–25covered +7.5
at USC21–25covered +7.5L
vs Iowa24–41missed −3QB change mid-game
vs Iowa24–41missed −3QB change mid-gameW
at Purdue38–26covered +3
at Purdue38–26covered +3USC6–2 · 55th-hardest schedule
W
vs San José State42–26missed −38.5
vs San José State42–26missed −38.5W
vs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5
vs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5W
vs Louisiana49–30missed −31
vs Louisiana49–30missed −31W
at Rutgers42–35missed −21
at Rutgers42–35missed −21L
vs Oregon27–41missed +3.5
vs Oregon27–41missed +3.5Wvs Washington25–21missed −7.5
vs Washington25–21missed −7.5W
at Penn State31–23covered −1
at Penn State31–23covered −1L
at Wisconsin7–24missed −2.5
at Wisconsin7–24missed −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is