Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 7:30 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
AP #2Ohio State
6–1 · Ours #1Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–22Our projected score
USC
6–2 · Ours #28Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.OSU 77%
OSU 77%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.OSU −6.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −7
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.51oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 56.0 · opened 50.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.OSU −6.5-108 DraftKings52% to cover · +0.6% EV
OSU −6.5-108 DraftKings52% to cover · +0.6% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Luke FaheyFreshman · 3 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.35
- Comp %
- 69.2
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Julian Sayin started Weeks 1–7 · Out on the Update 2 report
Jayden MaiavaSenior · 8 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.3410th
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 19
- Turnovers
- 55 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 10
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| USCoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseOhio State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26th | +0.18 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.08 | 19th |
| 8th | 50.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 34.9% | 15th |
| 11th | +0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.11 | 21st |
| 100th | +0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.04 | 37th |
| 67th | 12.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.1% | 27th |
| Ohio Stateoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseUSC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30th | +0.17 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.12 | 105th |
| 13th | 49.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 41.3% | 67th |
| 7th | +0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.23 | 123rd |
| 107th | 0.00 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.01 | 58th |
| 28th | 14.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.1% | 63rd |
Team stats
| USCUSC | Ohio StateOSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +0.369th | +0.659th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +1.362nd | +5.616th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 66%4th | 57%36th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.4738th | 4.7620th |
| Time of possession | 29:3649th | 23:18134th |
| Plays per game | 7028th | 6942nd |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −5 | +1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 12 – 7 | 10 – 11 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 12.1%113th | 14.0%75th |
Season so far
Ohio State6–1 · 49th-hardest schedule
W
vs Ball State56–3covered −50
vs Ball State56–3covered −50L
at Texas23–24covered +2
at Texas23–24covered +2W
vs Kent State59–3covered −52
vs Kent State59–3covered −52W
vs Illinois42–19missed −26
vs Illinois42–19missed −26W
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5W
vs Maryland45–16missed −31
vs Maryland45–16missed −31W
at Indiana19–15covered −2.5
at Indiana19–15covered −2.5USC6–2 · 57th-hardest schedule
W
vs San José State42–26missed −38.5
vs San José State42–26missed −38.5W
vs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5
vs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5W
vs Louisiana49–30missed −31
vs Louisiana49–30missed −31W
at Rutgers42–35missed −21
at Rutgers42–35missed −21L
vs Oregon27–41missed +3.5
vs Oregon27–41missed +3.5W
vs Washington25–21missed −7.5
vs Washington25–21missed −7.5W
at Penn State31–23covered −1
at Penn State31–23covered −1L
at Wisconsin7–24missed −2.5
at Wisconsin7–24missed −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is