Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
AP #20Oregon
5–3 · Ours #21 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
41–27FinalWe had ORE 31 – USC 31
AP #12USC
6–2 · Ours #13 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ORE 51%ORE won
ORE 51%ORE wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ORE −2.ORE −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. PK · ORE covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 62.1.60.5final 68 · over by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Dylan Raiola19/25 · 289 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.9499th pct
- Comp %
- 76.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Replaced Dante Moore in Q2
Jayden Maiava23/42 · 326 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1960th pct
- Comp %
- 54.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Oregonoffense | Played like ORE +7.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUSC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61st | 44.8%▲6.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.8%▼6.3 | 39th |
| 86th | +0.34▲0.39 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.33 | 15th |
| 96th | +0.79▲0.87 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.79▼0.71 | 4th |
| 24th | −0.15▼0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.10 | 76th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| USCoffense | defenseOregon | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54th | 42.7%▼10.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.7%▼5.4 | 46th |
| 65th | +0.16▼0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.16▼0.24 | 35th |
| 63rd | +0.19▼0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.38 | 37th |
| 61st | +0.12▲0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.11 | 39th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| OregonORE | USCUSC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2520th | Own 2848th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.5 pts62nd | −1.3 pts19th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6774th | 7591st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +7.572nd | −7.528th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.8 pts89th | +1.2 pts96th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ORE +4.4: turnovers +2.6, field position −1.3, kicking +1.3, 4th downs −0.5, penalty first downs +2.3. | +4.471st | −4.429th |
Season so far
Oregon5–3 · 7th-hardest schedule
W
vs Boise State34–27missed −25
vs Boise State34–27missed −25L
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24Wvs Portland State84–0covered −58.5
Wat USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-game
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-gameL
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5W
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5L
at Illinois10–21missed −10
at Illinois10–21missed −10W
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5USC6–2 · 55th-hardest schedule
W
vs San José State42–26missed −38.5
vs San José State42–26missed −38.5W
vs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5
vs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5W
vs Louisiana49–30missed −31
vs Louisiana49–30missed −31W
at Rutgers42–35missed −21
at Rutgers42–35missed −21Lvs Oregon27–41missed +3.5
vs Oregon27–41missed +3.5W
vs Washington25–21missed −7.5
vs Washington25–21missed −7.5W
at Penn State31–23covered −1
at Penn State31–23covered −1L
at Wisconsin7–24missed −2.5
at Wisconsin7–24missed −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is