Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Ohio State
6–1 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+24.1
Rank
1
Résumé
7
Projected wins
10.2▲ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
96%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on OSU games: 4–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–2, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +2.4 · closer than the market 3 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
10.26–1 banked, 5 to play · preseason 9.3
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins96%
11+ wins42%
The 5 games left add 4.2 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game87%
Win conference59%
Make the CFP96%
First-round bye72%
Win it all19%
- A CFP bid: 98% with a win vs USC, 87% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
7 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1730th
Success rate49.9%13th
Pass EPA+0.347th
Rush EPA+0.00107th
Explosive rate14.4%30th
Quality-drive rate56.7%35th
Points per quality drive4.821st
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0821st
Success allowed34.9%15th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1120th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0436th
Explosive allowed10.1%28th
Havoc rate14.0%72nd
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.659th
Turnover margin+165th · exp. −1.5
Field position margin+5.6 yd18th
Hidden points / game+1.6banked
Luck, wins+0.35.7 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 6–1
Rush rate over expected−3.7%95th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+24.11st
Schedule played+1.951st
Schedule remaining+9.522nd
Full schedule+5.137th
Pregame expected wins3.3of 7
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 1st · +24.1AP 2ndWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Ohio Stateoff +0.17 30thdef −0.08 allowed · 21st
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Ohio Stateoff +0.17 30thdef −0.08 allowed · 21st
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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