Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Ohio State

6–1 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+24.1
Rank
1
Résumé
7
Projected wins
10.2▲ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
96%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Ball StateBALLOSU −50.4OSU −50.5W 56–394BALL · L
Sat, Sep 129/12at TexasTEXOSU +0.8OSU +1.5L 23–2437OSU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19Kent StateKENTOSU −55.9OSU −52.0W 59–392OSU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26IllinoisILLOSU −27.7OSU −27.0W 42–1958OSU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at IowaIOWAOSU −11.6OSU −14.0W 31–1480IOWA · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10MarylandMDOSU −32.9OSU −35.0W 45–1667MD · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at IndianaIUOSU −7.0OSU −3.5W 19–1550OSU · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at USCUSCOSU −12.0OSU −6.5OSU −6.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7OregonOREOSU −15.4OSU −14.0wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21at NebraskaNEBOSU −13.3—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28MichiganMICHOSU −21.0OSU −13.5wk 13

Model on OSU games: 4–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–2, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +2.4 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
10.26–1 banked, 5 to play · preseason 9.3
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins96%
11+ wins42%

The 5 games left add 4.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game87%
Win conference59%
Make the CFP96%
First-round bye72%
Win it all19%
  • A CFP bid: 98% with a win vs USC, 87% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1730th
Success rate49.9%13th
Pass EPA+0.347th
Rush EPA+0.00107th
Explosive rate14.4%30th
Quality-drive rate56.7%35th
Points per quality drive4.821st
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0821st
Success allowed34.9%15th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1120th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0436th
Explosive allowed10.1%28th
Havoc rate14.0%72nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.659th
Turnover margin+165th · exp. −1.5
Field position margin+5.6 yd18th
Hidden points / game+1.6banked
Luck, wins+0.35.7 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 6–1
Rush rate over expected−3.7%95th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+24.11st
Schedule played+1.951st
Schedule remaining+9.522nd
Full schedule+5.137th
Pregame expected wins3.3of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 1st · +24.1AP 2ndWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUOSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Ohio Stateoff +0.17 30thdef −0.08 allowed · 21st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.