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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at IU · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Minnesota

5–2 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+1.3
Rank
62
Résumé
50
Projected wins
6.1▲ 1.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3Eastern IllinoisEastern IllinoisMINN −27.2MINN −42.5W 59–770
Sat, Sep 129/12Mississippi StateMSSTMINN +3.4MINN +1.5L 13–3838MINN · L
Sat, Sep 199/19AkronAKRMINN −19.2MINN −26.5W 41–758AKR · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at WashingtonWASHMINN +8.7MINN +9.5W 27–2456WASH · L
Sat, Oct 310/3MichiganMICHMINN +9.1MINN +5.5W 20–1452MICH · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at PurduePURMINN −5.9MINN −2.5L 13–4132MINN · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24IowaIOWAMINN +11.7MINN +7.0W 13–1050IOWA · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at IndianaIUMINN +22.4MINN +20.5IU −20.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7UCLAUCLAMINN +11.6MINN +6.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Penn StatePSUMINN +8.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21NorthwesternNUMINN +7.8—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27at WisconsinWISMINN +14.4—wk 13

Model on MINN games: 0–6 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–4 · as the dog 0–2 · home 0–2, away 0–4 · avg gap to the market +3.5 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.15–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 4.8
Bowl (6+)31%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 1.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.08132nd
Success rate39.4%115th
Pass EPA+0.0295th
Rush EPA−0.20138th
Explosive rate11.7%94th
Quality-drive rate52.1%62nd
Points per quality drive3.2123rd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0819th
Success allowed40.3%55th
Pass EPA allowed−0.198th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0370th
Explosive allowed11.5%71st
Havoc rate18.0%12th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.64th
Turnover margin+620th · exp. +3.5
Field position margin+6.5 yd13th
Hidden points / game+4.5banked
Luck, wins+1.23.8 earned
One-score record3–0flipped 2–5
Rush rate over expected−7.2%123rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+1.362nd
Schedule played+1.261st
Schedule remaining+11.512th
Full schedule+5.927th
Pregame expected wins2.4of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 62nd · +1.3Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMINNgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Minnesotaoff −0.08 132nddef −0.08 allowed · 19th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.