Week 1 report · Fri, Sep 4 · 2026 Week 1
Fresno State
4–3 · Ours #79 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
0–39FinalWe had FRES 16 – USC 39
AP #14USC
6–2 · Ours #12 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USC 92%USC won
USC 92%USC wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USC −22.5.USC −21.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −23.9 · USC covered by 17.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.0.51final 39 · under by 12
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USC −22.5Wlost 1.0 to the close
USC −22.5Wlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Jayden Mandal7/15 · 77 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3810th pct
- Comp %
- 46.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Jayden Maiava23/25 · 349 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +1.0199th pct
- Comp %
- 92.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Fresno Stateoffense | Played like USC +47.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUSC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7th | 26.1%▼17.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 26.1%▲15.1 | 93rd |
| 4th | −0.41▼0.55 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.41▲0.53 | 96th |
| 20th | −0.27▼0.48 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.50 | 80th |
| 3rd | −0.52▼0.57 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.52▲0.52 | 97th |
| 15th | 2▼1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.6 | 85th |
| USCoffense | defenseFresno State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93rd | 59.5%▲9.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 59.5%▼19.6 | 7th |
| 94th | +0.47▲0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.47▼0.51 | 6th |
| 100th | +1.32▲1.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +1.32▼1.47 | 1st |
| 8th | −0.34▼0.38 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.34▲0.40 | 92nd |
| 15th | 2▼1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.7 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Fresno StateFRES | USCUSC | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 227th | Own 2635th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 231st | 3714th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −37.91st | +37.999th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts30th | −0.1 pts38th |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 049th | 2100th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USC +6.1: field position +1.5, 4th downs +0.3, penalty first downs −1.5, safeties +5.9. | −6.123rd | +6.177th |
Season so far
Fresno State4–3 · 116th-hardest schedule
Lat USC0–39missed +21.5
at USC0–39missed +21.5W
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5
vs Sacramento State49–3covered −17.5W
at San José State26–10covered −4.5
at San José State26–10covered −4.5W
vs Rice38–24covered −13
vs Rice38–24covered −13W
at Washington State26–6covered +2
at Washington State26–6covered +2L
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5
vs Boise State31–38covered +9.5L
at San Diego State23–26missed −7
at San Diego State23–26missed −7USC6–2 · 55th-hardest schedule
Wvs San José State42–26missed −38.5
vs San José State42–26missed −38.5Wvs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5
vs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5W
vs Louisiana49–30missed −31
vs Louisiana49–30missed −31W
at Rutgers42–35missed −21
at Rutgers42–35missed −21L
vs Oregon27–41missed +3.5
vs Oregon27–41missed +3.5W
vs Washington25–21missed −7.5
vs Washington25–21missed −7.5W
at Penn State31–23covered −1
at Penn State31–23covered −1L
at Wisconsin7–24missed −2.5
at Wisconsin7–24missed −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 4, 7:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is