Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
AP #16USC
6–2 · Ours #22 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–24FinalWe had USC 26 – WIS 25
Wisconsin
5–3 · Ours #21 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USC 52%WIS won
USC 52%WIS wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at USC −2.5.USC −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −0.8 · WIS covered by 19.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.5.50.5final 31 · under by 19.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.WIS +3Wbeat the close by 0.5
WIS +3Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Jayden Maiava32/51 · 269 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0831st pct
- Comp %
- 62.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Colton Joseph12/14 · 58 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2121st pct
- Comp %
- 85.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| USCoffense | Played like WIS +3.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWisconsin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66th | 46.1%▼6.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.1%▼10.9 | 35th |
| 26th | −0.11▼0.37 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.11▼0.01 | 74th |
| 35th | −0.08▼0.58 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.08▼0.06 | 65th |
| 20th | −0.19▼0.21 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.09 | 81st |
| 15th | 2▼1.1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 85th |
| Wisconsinoffense | defenseUSC | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55th | 42.9%▲3.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.9%▼4.1 | 45th |
| 38th | −0.03▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.09 | 62nd |
| 24th | −0.21▼0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.44 | 76th |
| 51st | +0.05▼0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.13 | 49th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| USCUSC | WisconsinWIS | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2629th | Own 3893rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −3.1 pts4th | −1.1 pts21st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7693rd | 5643rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −1.346th | +1.354th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.2 pts37th | +0.1 pts61st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WIS +11.3: turnovers +5.2, field position +4.3, kicking +1.4, 4th downs +0.4. | −11.38th | +11.392nd |
Season so far
USC6–2 · 55th-hardest schedule
W
vs San José State42–26missed −38.5
vs San José State42–26missed −38.5W
vs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5
vs Fresno State39–0covered −21.5W
vs Louisiana49–30missed −31
vs Louisiana49–30missed −31W
at Rutgers42–35missed −21
at Rutgers42–35missed −21L
vs Oregon27–41missed +3.5
vs Oregon27–41missed +3.5W
vs Washington25–21missed −7.5
vs Washington25–21missed −7.5W
at Penn State31–23covered −1
at Penn State31–23covered −1Lat Wisconsin7–24missed −2.5
at Wisconsin7–24missed −2.5Wisconsin5–3 · 11th-hardest schedule
L
at Notre Dame13–41missed +21.5
at Notre Dame13–41missed +21.5Wvs Western Illinois36–9missed −43.5
W
vs Eastern Michigan54–10covered −23.5
vs Eastern Michigan54–10covered −23.5Wat Penn State24–20covered +10
at Penn State24–20covered +10W
vs Michigan State31–3covered −8.5
vs Michigan State31–3covered −8.5L
at UCLA7–17missed +1.5
at UCLA7–17missed +1.5Wvs USC24–7covered +2.5
vs USC24–7covered +2.5L
at Iowa0–30missed +2.5
at Iowa0–30missed +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is