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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs MINN · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Indiana

7–1 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+18.7
Rank
8
Résumé
5
Projected wins
10.3▲ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
85%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5North TexasUNTIU −25.4IU −40.5W 52–1659UNT · W
Sat, Sep 129/12HowardHowardIU −50.8IU −58.0W 55–098
Sat, Sep 199/19Western KentuckyWKUIU −37.4IU −44.5W 38–083WKU · W
Fri, Sep 259/25NorthwesternNUIU −21.8IU −23.5W 29–2345NU · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at RutgersRUTGIU −22.9IU −24.0W 47–1593RUTG · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at NebraskaNEBIU −4.3IU −7.5W 20–1758NEB · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Ohio StateOSUIU +7.0IU +3.5L 15–1950OSU · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at MichiganMICHIU −6.0IU −7.0W 13–647MICH · Push
Sat, Oct 3110/31MinnesotaMINNIU −22.4IU −20.5IU −20.5Pass
Sat, Nov 1411/14USCUSCIU −9.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at WashingtonWASHIU −12.1—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28PurduePURIU −25.5—wk 13

Model on IU games: 5–1–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 4–1 · home 1–1, away 4–0 · avg gap to the market +5.6 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
10.37–1 banked, 4 to play · preseason 9.5
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins87%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 3.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game46%
Win conference20%
Make the CFP85%
First-round bye22%
Win it all6%
  • A CFP bid: 89% with a win vs Minnesota, 43% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1445th
Success rate43.7%62nd
Pass EPA+0.2524th
Rush EPA+0.0585th
Explosive rate16.4%11th
Quality-drive rate59.5%15th
Points per quality drive3.976th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0824th
Success allowed35.7%21st
Pass EPA allowed−0.0735th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0915th
Explosive allowed10.4%38th
Havoc rate15.9%34th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.276th
Turnover margin+714th · exp. +9.5
Field position margin+5.2 yd20th
Hidden points / game+4.6banked
Luck, wins+0.76.3 earned
One-score record3–1flipped 5–3
Rush rate over expected+1.0%43rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+18.78th
Schedule played+4.931st
Schedule remaining+2.957th
Full schedule+4.247th
Pregame expected wins4.7of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 8th · +18.7AP 4thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUIUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Indianaoff +0.14 45thdef −0.08 allowed · 24th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.