Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
UConn
4–4 · Ours #81 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
48–20FinalWe had CONN 28 – USM 30
Southern Miss
3–5 · Ours #108 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.USM 56%CONN won
USM 56%CONN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at CONN −3.CONN −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +2.5 · CONN covered by 25
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 58.3.54.5final 68 · over by 13.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USM +3.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
USM +3.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Kalieb Osborne16/22 · 214 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2867th pct
- Comp %
- 72.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Landry Lyddy14/25 · 194 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0138th pct
- Comp %
- 56.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Replaced Ethan Hampton in Q3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UConnoffense | Played like CONN +19.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSouthern Miss | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th | 50.0%▲8.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▼5.6 | 22nd |
| 78th | +0.27▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.18 | 22nd |
| 82nd | +0.42▲0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.42▼0.34 | 18th |
| 68th | +0.17▼0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.05 | 32nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
| Southern Missoffense | defenseUConn | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27th | 35.6%▼2.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 35.6%▲8.6 | 73rd |
| 24th | −0.12▼0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.21 | 76th |
| 28th | −0.16▼0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.16▲0.36 | 72nd |
| 36th | −0.05▼0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.05▼0.04 | 64th |
| 15th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.4 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| UConnCONN | Southern MissUSM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3274th | Own 2521st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.4 pts85th | +1.6 pts88th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5234th | 4524th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +11.581st | −11.519th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −1.0 pts6th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. CONN +14.1: turnovers +5.2, field position +2.7, kicking −0.1, 4th downs +1.4, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | +14.197th | −14.13rd |
Season so far
UConn4–4 · 119th-hardest schedule
Wvs Lafayette56–7covered −21
L
vs Maryland14–38missed +11.5
vs Maryland14–38missed +11.5Wat Southern Miss48–20covered −3
at Southern Miss48–20covered −3L
at Miami (OH)21–24missed +2.5
at Miami (OH)21–24missed +2.5L
vs Syracuse41–42covered +6.5
vs Syracuse41–42covered +6.5W
at Temple34–20covered +3.5
at Temple34–20covered +3.5W
vs Massachusetts35–16covered −13
vs Massachusetts35–16covered −13L
at Air Force26–35missed −1
at Air Force26–35missed −1Southern Miss3–5 · 102nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Alcorn State49–3covered −19.5
L
at Auburn8–43missed +32.5
at Auburn8–43missed +32.5Lvs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-game
vs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-gameL
at Tulane21–24covered +18.5
at Tulane21–24covered +18.5L
at Troy34–55missed +10
at Troy34–55missed +10L
vs Arkansas State13–23missed +5.5
vs Arkansas State13–23missed +5.5W
vs Louisiana35–31covered +10
vs Louisiana35–31covered +10W
at UL Monroe35–21covered −3.5
at UL Monroe35–21covered −3.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is