Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UConn
4–4 FBS · FBS Independents · this season
Rating
+0.5
Rank
64
Résumé
104
Projected wins
6.8▲ 0.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on CONN games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–3 · home 2–3, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +7.6 · closer than the market 2 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
6.84–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.3
Bowl (6+)62%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.8 expected wins.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2020th
Success rate44.7%50th
Pass EPA+0.1647th
Rush EPA+0.246th
Explosive rate15.8%14th
Quality-drive rate54.8%44th
Points per quality drive4.350th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0679th
Success allowed42.5%83rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.0779th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0578th
Explosive allowed8.5%8th
Havoc rate13.1%89th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.371st
Turnover margin+256th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin+3.0 yd36th
Hidden points / game+0.8banked
Luck, wins−1.25.2 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 6–2
Rush rate over expected−1.2%62nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+0.564th
Schedule played−6.0120th
Schedule remaining−3.885th
Full schedule−5.2104th
Pregame expected wins4.2of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 64th · +0.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
UConnoff +0.20 20thdef +0.06 allowed · 79th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
UConnoff +0.20 20thdef +0.06 allowed · 79th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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