Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UConn

4–4 FBS · FBS Independents · this season
Rating
+0.5
Rank
64
Résumé
104
Projected wins
6.8▲ 0.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5LafayetteLafayetteCONN −27.1CONN −21.0W 56–795
Sat, Sep 129/12MarylandMDCONN −4.7CONN +13.0L 14–3826CONN · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at Southern MissUSMCONN +2.5CONN −3.5W 48–2077USM · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at Miami (OH)M-OHCONN −4.8CONN +5.5L 21–2447CONN · W
Sat, Oct 310/3SyracuseSYRCONN −7.5CONN +6.5L 41–4263CONN · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at TempleTEMCONN +4.1CONN +3.5W 34–2058TEM · L
Fri, Oct 2310/23MassachusettsMASSCONN −19.3CONN −15.5W 35–1671CONN · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Air ForceAFCONN +2.1CONN +3.0L 26–3551CONN · L
Sat, Nov 2811/28at WyomingWYOCONN −5.2—wk 13

Model on CONN games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–3 · home 2–3, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +7.6 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.84–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.3
Bowl (6+)62%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2020th
Success rate44.7%50th
Pass EPA+0.1647th
Rush EPA+0.246th
Explosive rate15.8%14th
Quality-drive rate54.8%44th
Points per quality drive4.350th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0679th
Success allowed42.5%83rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.0779th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0578th
Explosive allowed8.5%8th
Havoc rate13.1%89th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.371st
Turnover margin+256th · exp. 0.0
Field position margin+3.0 yd36th
Hidden points / game+0.8banked
Luck, wins−1.25.2 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 6–2
Rush rate over expected−1.2%62nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+0.564th
Schedule played−6.0120th
Schedule remaining−3.885th
Full schedule−5.2104th
Pregame expected wins4.2of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 64th · +0.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCONNgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UConnoff +0.20 20thdef +0.06 allowed · 79th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.