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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Troy

4–4 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−6.6
Rank
99
Résumé
84
Projected wins
5.4▲ 0.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Sam HoustonSHSUTROY −14.5TROY −16.5W 24–2151SHSU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12Alabama StateAlabama StateTROY −26.1TROY −23.5W 34–1766
Sat, Sep 199/19at MissouriMIZTROY +27.1TROY +27.5L 17–2742TROY · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Utah StateUSUTROY PKTROY +2.5L 10–2136TROY · L
Tue, Oct 610/6Southern MissUSMTROY −0.7TROY −10.5W 55–3448USM · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at LouisianaULTROY +5.7TROY +4.5L 6–3339UL · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24UL MonroeULMTROY −16.7TROY −16.5L 14–2153TROY · L
Thu, Oct 2910/29at James MadisonJMUTROY +22.1TROY +21.0W 24–2149JMU · L
Sat, Nov 711/7Louisiana TechLTTROY +5.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at South AlabamaUSATROY +6.7—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Georgia SouthernGASOTROY +4.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Arkansas StateARSTTROY +8.8—wk 13

Model on TROY games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 2–2 · home 1–2, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +3.4 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.44–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.2
Bowl (6+)13%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.03119th
Success rate39.5%114th
Pass EPA−0.20134th
Rush EPA+0.1147th
Explosive rate10.8%109th
Quality-drive rate42.4%118th
Points per quality drive3.4112th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0051st
Success allowed39.6%47th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0162nd
Rush EPA allowed−0.0147th
Explosive allowed11.1%60th
Havoc rate14.8%53rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.0126th
Turnover margin−3101st · exp. +1.5
Field position margin−4.8 yd128th
Hidden points / game−3.8gave up
Luck, wins+1.32.7 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 3–5
Rush rate over expected+4.1%28th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−6.699th
Schedule played−5.0110th
Schedule remaining−4.187th
Full schedule−4.797th
Pregame expected wins3.4of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 99th · −6.6Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingSam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUTROYgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Troyoff −0.03 119thdef −0.00 allowed · 51st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.