LockSZNTeam
Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at CCU · Sat, Nov 7 · 1:00 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Old Dominion

2–7 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−15.5
Rank
129
Résumé
133
Projected wins
3.5▼ 1.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Norfolk StateNorfolk StateODU −31.2ODU −41.0W 31–1063
Sat, Sep 129/12at Virginia TechVTODU +16.5ODU +18.0L 21–4433ODU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19East CarolinaECUODU +1.1ODU −2.5L 17–2052ECU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26James MadisonJMUODU +16.4ODU +3.0L 20–4649JMU · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at Georgia StateGASTODU +5.5ODU +2.5L 10–427GAST · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at App StateAPPODU +9.6ODU +9.5W 10–357APP · L
Thu, Oct 1510/15Georgia SouthernGASOODU +1.9ODU +4.0L 15–2336ODU · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Louisiana TechLTODU +10.4ODU +10.5L 0–2624LT · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31MarshallMRSHODU +3.0ODU +3.0L 23–36—MRSH · W
Sat, Nov 711/7at Coastal CarolinaCCUODU +2.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21at UConnCONNODU +17.6—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Southern MissUSMODU +1.7—wk 13

Model on ODU games: 5–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 4–1 · as the dog 1–2 · home 2–2, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +3.0 · closer than the market 4 of 8

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.52–7 banked, 3 to play · preseason 5.0
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 3 games left add 1.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game0%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

9 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.18138th
Success rate30.5%138th
Pass EPA−0.23137th
Rush EPA−0.14133rd
Explosive rate9.3%133rd
Quality-drive rate35.6%135th
Points per quality drive2.7132nd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0822nd
Success allowed39.2%43rd
Pass EPA allowed−0.0536th
Rush EPA allowed−0.1111th
Explosive allowed10.5%39th
Havoc rate15.2%45th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−6.0138th
Turnover margin−9134th · exp. −6.0
Field position margin−6.0 yd134th
Hidden points / game−8.2gave up
Luck, wins−0.52.5 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 3–6
Rush rate over expected+4.9%23rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−15.5129th
Schedule played−2.387th
Schedule remaining−6.099th
Full schedule−3.385th
Pregame expected wins3.1of 9

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 129th · −15.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUODUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Old Dominionoff −0.18 138thdef −0.08 allowed · 22nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.