Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Louisiana Tech

5–2 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−1.3
Rank
75
Résumé
24
Projected wins
8.2▲ 2.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Northwestern StateNorthwestern StateLT −29.3LT −44.5W 80–699
Sat, Sep 129/12at LSULSULT +24.5LT +32.5L 14–4542LT · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at BaylorBAYLT +12.4LT +17.5L 19–3643LT · W
Sat, Oct 310/3ArmyARMYLT PKLT +2.0W 31–2957LT · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10LouisianaULLT PKLT −2.5W 32–3161UL · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at UL MonroeULMLT −13.4LT −14.5W 24–075ULM · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24Old DominionODULT −10.4LT −10.5W 26–076LT · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at South AlabamaUSALT −3.6LT −6.0USA +6.0Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at TroyTROYLT −5.6—wk 10

Model on LT games: 5–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 4–1 · home 2–1, away 3–0 · avg gap to the market +4.2 · closer than the market 1 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.25–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.8
Bowl (6+)92%
9+ wins12%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 3.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game58%
Win conference27%
Make the CFP1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1349th
Success rate42.7%71st
Pass EPA+0.1936th
Rush EPA+0.0774th
Explosive rate13.7%41st
Quality-drive rate58.0%23rd
Points per quality drive3.981st
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0725th
Success allowed36.6%23rd
Pass EPA allowed−0.1022nd
Rush EPA allowed−0.0435th
Explosive allowed13.7%108th
Havoc rate18.4%7th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−2.0115th
Turnover margin072nd · exp. +7.0
Field position margin+1.9 yd50th
Hidden points / game+0.9banked
Luck, wins+0.84.2 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected−1.8%72nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−1.375th
Schedule played−0.574th
Schedule remaining−6.5107th
Full schedule−3.284th
Pregame expected wins3.7of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 75th · −1.3Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMULTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Louisiana Techoff +0.13 49thdef −0.07 allowed · 25th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.