Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Louisiana Tech
5–2 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−1.3
Rank
75
Résumé
24
Projected wins
8.2▲ 2.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
1%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on LT games: 5–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 4–1 · home 2–1, away 3–0 · avg gap to the market +4.2 · closer than the market 1 of 6
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.25–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.8
Bowl (6+)92%
9+ wins12%
11+ wins0%
The 5 games left add 3.2 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game58%
Win conference27%
Make the CFP1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
7 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1349th
Success rate42.7%71st
Pass EPA+0.1936th
Rush EPA+0.0774th
Explosive rate13.7%41st
Quality-drive rate58.0%23rd
Points per quality drive3.981st
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0725th
Success allowed36.6%23rd
Pass EPA allowed−0.1022nd
Rush EPA allowed−0.0435th
Explosive allowed13.7%108th
Havoc rate18.4%7th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−2.0115th
Turnover margin072nd · exp. +7.0
Field position margin+1.9 yd50th
Hidden points / game+0.9banked
Luck, wins+0.84.2 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected−1.8%72nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−1.375th
Schedule played−0.574th
Schedule remaining−6.5107th
Full schedule−3.284th
Pregame expected wins3.7of 7
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 75th · −1.3Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Louisiana Techoff +0.13 49thdef −0.07 allowed · 25th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Louisiana Techoff +0.13 49thdef −0.07 allowed · 25th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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