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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UL Monroe

1–6 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−19.4
Rank
134
Résumé
128
Projected wins
2.1▼ 1.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at Mississippi StateMSSTULM +22.9ULM +28.5L 13–6210ULM · L
Sat, Sep 129/12at UABUABULM +17.6ULM +10.5L 20–2631UAB · L
Sat, Sep 199/19SE LouisianaSE LouisianaULM −24.9ULM −9.5L 35–3860
Sat, Sep 269/26Florida AtlanticFAUULM +8.7ULM +13.0L 17–4547ULM · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at South AlabamaUSAULM +18.9ULM +14.0L 35–5256USA · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17Louisiana TechLTULM +13.4ULM +14.5L 0–2425ULM · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at TroyTROYULM +16.7ULM +16.5W 21–1447TROY · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31Southern MissUSMULM +7.8ULM +3.5USM −3.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at Arkansas StateARSTULM +17.6—wk 10
Thu, Nov 1211/12LouisianaULULM +14.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at App StateAPPULM +17.3—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28MarshallMRSHULM +8.7—wk 13

Model on ULM games: 1–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 0–3 · home 1–4, away 0–1 · avg gap to the market +4.3 · closer than the market 1 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
2.11–6 banked, 5 to play · preseason 3.5
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 1.1 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.01110th
Success rate41.6%85th
Pass EPA−0.03111th
Rush EPA+0.0295th
Explosive rate11.7%96th
Quality-drive rate39.0%131st
Points per quality drive3.793rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.16122nd
Success allowed46.4%126th
Pass EPA allowed+0.28127th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0793rd
Explosive allowed12.6%88th
Havoc rate11.9%121st

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−2.2119th
Turnover margin−5113th · exp. −3.0
Field position margin−4.5 yd126th
Hidden points / game−0.8gave up
Luck, wins−1.02.0 earned
One-score record1–2flipped 2–5
Rush rate over expected−0.4%57th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−19.4134th
Schedule played−4.5100th
Schedule remaining−6.2101st
Full schedule−5.3105th
Pregame expected wins0.8of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 134th · −19.4Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUULMgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UL Monroeoff −0.01 110thdef +0.16 allowed · 122nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.