Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Louisiana
5–3 · Ours #62 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–35FinalWe had UL 30 – USM 22
Southern Miss
3–5 · Ours #125 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UL 69%USM won
UL 69%USM wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UL −11.UL −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7.8 · USM covered by 14
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.1.52.5final 66 · over by 13.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USM +10.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
USM +10.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Lunch Winfield22/40 · 299 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0949th pct
- Comp %
- 55.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Landry Lyddy21/38 · 163 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.554th pct
- Comp %
- 55.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Louisianaoffense | Played like USM +2.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSouthern Miss | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45th | 40.7%▼0.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.7%▲5.3 | 55th |
| 26th | −0.10▼0.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.26 | 74th |
| 36th | −0.07▼0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.23 | 64th |
| 24th | −0.15▼0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.32 | 76th |
| 41st | 1▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.8 | 59th |
| Southern Missoffense | defenseLouisiana | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45th | 40.7%▲3.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.7%▼0.5 | 55th |
| 31st | −0.08▼0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.04 | 70th |
| 6th | −0.55▼0.59 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.55▲0.58 | 94th |
| 92nd | +0.41▲0.43 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.54 | 8th |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| LouisianaUL | Southern MissUSM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3271st | Own 3061st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.5 pts17th | −2.1 pts9th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8197th | 8197th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.855th | −1.845th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.4 pts3rd | −0.4 pts26th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. USM +5.1: field position −0.7, kicking −0.5, 4th downs +1.3, penalty first downs +0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −5.127th | +5.173rd |
Season so far
Louisiana5–3 · 120th-hardest schedule
Wvs Lamar38–7covered −20.5
L
at USC30–49covered +31
at USC30–49covered +31W
vs UAB21–14push −7
vs UAB21–14push −7W
at Charlotte34–7covered −9.5
at Charlotte34–7covered −9.5W
vs Arkansas State23–20missed −5
vs Arkansas State23–20missed −5L
at Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3
at Louisiana Tech31–32covered +3W
vs Troy33–6covered −3
vs Troy33–6covered −3Lat Southern Miss31–35missed −10
at Southern Miss31–35missed −10Southern Miss3–5 · 102nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Alcorn State49–3covered −19.5
L
at Auburn8–43missed +32.5
at Auburn8–43missed +32.5L
vs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-game
vs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-gameL
at Tulane21–24covered +18.5
at Tulane21–24covered +18.5Lat Troy34–55missed +10
at Troy34–55missed +10Lvs Arkansas State13–23missed +5.5
vs Arkansas State13–23missed +5.5Wvs Louisiana35–31covered +10
vs Louisiana35–31covered +10W
at UL Monroe35–21covered −3.5
at UL Monroe35–21covered −3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is