Southern Miss
3–5 · Ours #114Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–23Our projected score
Old Dominion
2–7 · Ours #129Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.USM 55%
USM 55%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. USM −1.7
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 48.1
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Landry LyddySenior · 5 starts this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- 0.00100th
- Comp %
- 59.3
- TD
- 7
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 11
Jaxon PotterJunior · 1 start this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.23
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
New starter last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Old Dominionoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseSouthern Miss | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 138th | −0.18 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.07 | 87th |
| 138th | 30.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 43.1% | 93rd |
| 137th | −0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.06 | 77th |
| 133rd | −0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.09 | 94th |
| 133rd | 9.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 12.1% | 80th |
| Southern Missoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseOld Dominion | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71st | +0.07 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.08 | 20th |
| 92nd | 40.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 39.2% | 42nd |
| 107th | −0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.05 | 35th |
| 20th | +0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.11 | 11th |
| 56th | 13.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.5% | 36th |
Team stats
| Old DominionODU | Southern MissUSM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −6.0138th | −2.9126th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −6.0134th | +0.274th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 36%134th | 51%72nd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.74132nd | 3.37114th |
| Time of possession | 22:48135th | 25:48122nd |
| Plays per game | 60121st | 7027th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −9 | −6 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 20 – 11 | 17 – 11 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 15.2%42nd | 13.4%84th |
Season so far
Southern Miss3–5 · 102nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Alcorn State49–3covered −19.5
L
at Auburn8–43missed +32.5
at Auburn8–43missed +32.5L
vs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-game
vs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-gameL
at Tulane21–24covered +18.5
at Tulane21–24covered +18.5L
at Troy34–55missed +10
at Troy34–55missed +10L
vs Arkansas State13–23missed +5.5
vs Arkansas State13–23missed +5.5W
vs Louisiana35–31covered +10
vs Louisiana35–31covered +10W
at UL Monroe35–21covered −3.5
at UL Monroe35–21covered −3.5Old Dominion2–7 · 84th-hardest schedule
Wvs Norfolk State31–10missed −41
L
at Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5
at Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5L
vs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5
vs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5L
vs James Madison20–46missed +6.5
vs James Madison20–46missed +6.5L
at Georgia State10–42missed +2.5
at Georgia State10–42missed +2.5W
at App State10–3covered +9.5
at App State10–3covered +9.5L
vs Georgia Southern15–23missed +3QB change mid-game
vs Georgia Southern15–23missed +3QB change mid-gameL
at Louisiana Tech0–26missed +14
at Louisiana Tech0–26missed +14L
vs Marshall23–36missed +3
vs Marshall23–36missed +3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is