Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

James Madison
7–2 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
+4.4
Rank
49
Résumé
33
Projected wins
9.3▲ 0.7 vs preseason
CFP odds
2%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on JMU games: 4–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–3 · as the dog 1–1 · home 2–1, away 2–3 · avg gap to the market +5.6 · closer than the market 4 of 8
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
9.37–2 banked, 3 to play · preseason 8.6
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins45%
11+ wins0%
The 3 games left add 2.3 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game61%
Win conference38%
Make the CFP2%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
- Scoreboard watch: root for Texas State over Boise State — swings a CFP bid between 1% and 4%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
9 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0964th
Success rate43.8%61st
Pass EPA+0.0970th
Rush EPA+0.1056th
Explosive rate13.3%56th
Quality-drive rate53.2%56th
Points per quality drive4.531st
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0335th
Success allowed37.3%29th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0342nd
Rush EPA allowed−0.0343rd
Explosive allowed10.4%37th
Havoc rate15.0%47th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+6.01st
Turnover margin+343rd · exp. +1.0
Field position margin+8.1 yd5th
Hidden points / game+1.2banked
Luck, wins+0.16.9 earned
One-score record2–2flipped 7–2
Rush rate over expected−1.7%71st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+4.449th
Schedule played−5.6116th
Schedule remaining−6.099th
Full schedule−5.7112th
Pregame expected wins6.5of 9
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 49th · +4.4Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
James Madisonoff +0.09 64thdef −0.03 allowed · 35th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
James Madisonoff +0.09 64thdef −0.03 allowed · 35th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.

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