Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

James Madison

7–2 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
+4.4
Rank
49
Résumé
33
Projected wins
9.3▲ 0.7 vs preseason
CFP odds
2%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5LibertyLIBJMU −9.2JMU −6.5W 20–1352JMU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12WagnerWagnerJMU −41.0JMU −46.0W 87–390
Sat, Sep 199/19at San Diego StateSDSUJMU −5.9JMU +0.5W 26–1355JMU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Old DominionODUJMU −16.4JMU −3.0W 46–2051JMU · W
Sat, Oct 310/3MarshallMRSHJMU −22.6JMU −18.5W 45–1770JMU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Georgia SouthernGASOJMU −17.6JMU −8.5W 27–2449JMU · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17Georgia StateGASTJMU −10.8JMU −12.0W 49–2270GAST · L
Thu, Oct 2210/22at App StateAPPJMU −14.5JMU −11.0L 31–3447JMU · L
Thu, Oct 2910/29TroyTROYJMU −22.1JMU −21.0L 21–2452JMU · L
Thu, Nov 511/5at Southern MissUSMJMU −13.6—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at UConnCONNJMU −3.9—wk 11

Model on JMU games: 4–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–3 · as the dog 1–1 · home 2–1, away 2–3 · avg gap to the market +5.6 · closer than the market 4 of 8

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.37–2 banked, 3 to play · preseason 8.6
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins45%
11+ wins0%

The 3 games left add 2.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game61%
Win conference38%
Make the CFP2%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

9 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0964th
Success rate43.8%61st
Pass EPA+0.0970th
Rush EPA+0.1056th
Explosive rate13.3%56th
Quality-drive rate53.2%56th
Points per quality drive4.531st
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0335th
Success allowed37.3%29th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0342nd
Rush EPA allowed−0.0343rd
Explosive allowed10.4%37th
Havoc rate15.0%47th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+6.01st
Turnover margin+343rd · exp. +1.0
Field position margin+8.1 yd5th
Hidden points / game+1.2banked
Luck, wins+0.16.9 earned
One-score record2–2flipped 7–2
Rush rate over expected−1.7%71st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+4.449th
Schedule played−5.6116th
Schedule remaining−6.099th
Full schedule−5.7112th
Pregame expected wins6.5of 9

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 49th · +4.4Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUJMUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
James Madisonoff +0.09 64thdef −0.03 allowed · 35th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.