Week 6 report · Tue, Oct 6 · 2026 Week 6
Southern Miss
3–5 · Ours #111 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
34–55FinalWe had USM 24 – TROY 25
Troy
4–4 · Ours #96 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TROY 52%TROY won
TROY 52%TROY wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TROY −10.TROY −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −0.7 · TROY covered by 11
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 48.3.51.5final 89 · over by 37.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Landry Lyddy24/37 · 316 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.5487th pct
- Comp %
- 64.9
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Goose Crowder18/21 · 225 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6492nd pct
- Comp %
- 85.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Southern Missoffense | Played like TROY +1.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTroy | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73rd | 48.5%▲12.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.5%▼8.3 | 27th |
| 93rd | +0.44▲0.51 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.48 | 7th |
| 90th | +0.58▲0.72 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.58▼0.61 | 11th |
| 76th | +0.22▲0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.30 | 24th |
| 4th | 3▼1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲1.7 | 96th |
| Troyoffense | defenseSouthern Miss | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92nd | 58.8%▲23.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 58.8%▼15.9 | 8th |
| 89th | +0.39▲0.50 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.39▼0.32 | 11th |
| 93rd | +0.64▲0.98 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.64▼0.59 | 7th |
| 84th | +0.29▲0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.19 | 16th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Southern MissUSM | TroyTROY | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3057th | Own 2418th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.7 pts67th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6672nd | 8096th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −4.336th | +4.364th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 698th | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts58th | 0.0 pts42nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. TROY +1.8: turnovers +7.8, field position −1.9, kicking +0.5, 4th downs −0.1, penalty first downs −4.6. | −1.840th | +1.860th |
Season so far
Southern Miss3–5 · 102nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Alcorn State49–3covered −19.5
L
at Auburn8–43missed +32.5
at Auburn8–43missed +32.5L
vs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-game
vs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-gameL
at Tulane21–24covered +18.5
at Tulane21–24covered +18.5Lat Troy34–55missed +10
at Troy34–55missed +10L
vs Arkansas State13–23missed +5.5
vs Arkansas State13–23missed +5.5W
vs Louisiana35–31covered +10
vs Louisiana35–31covered +10W
at UL Monroe35–21covered −3.5
at UL Monroe35–21covered −3.5Troy4–4 · 106th-hardest schedule
W
vs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5
vs Sam Houston24–21missed −16.5Wvs Alabama State34–17missed −23.5
L
at Missouri17–27covered +27
at Missouri17–27covered +27L
at Utah State10–21missed +3
at Utah State10–21missed +3Wvs Southern Miss55–34covered −10
vs Southern Miss55–34covered −10Lat Louisiana6–33missed +3
at Louisiana6–33missed +3Lvs UL Monroe14–21missed −13
vs UL Monroe14–21missed −13W
at James Madison24–21covered +19.5
at James Madison24–21covered +19.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 6, 7:25 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is