Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Arkansas State
4–4 · Ours #101 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–13FinalWe had ARST 30 – USM 29
Southern Miss
3–5 · Ours #120 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ARST 54%ARST won
ARST 54%ARST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ARST −6.5.ARST −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.6 · ARST covered by 4.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 59.0.61.5final 36 · under by 25.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USM +7Lbeat the close by 1.5
USM +7Lbeat the close by 1.5Quarterbacksthis game
Trey Owens18/26 · 170 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1555th pct
- Comp %
- 69.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
Landry Lyddy19/35 · 208 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0634th pct
- Comp %
- 54.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arkansas Stateoffense | Played like USM +1.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseSouthern Miss | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33rd | 37.2%▼10.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.2%▲9.3 | 67th |
| 27th | −0.10▼0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.25 | 73rd |
| 59th | +0.15▲0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.03 | 41st |
| 12th | −0.27▼0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.46 | 88th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
| Southern Missoffense | defenseArkansas State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18th | 32.2%▼6.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.2%▲16.5 | 82nd |
| 32nd | −0.07▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.24 | 68th |
| 38th | −0.06▼0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.29 | 62nd |
| 31st | −0.09▼0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.24 | 69th |
| 15th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arkansas StateARST | Southern MissUSM | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3166th | Own 3482nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.1 pts96th | −2.5 pts5th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7895th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.053rd | −1.047th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +1.3 pts97th | −1.0 pts7th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ARST +12.5: turnovers +5.2, field position −1.2, kicking +3.3, 4th downs +3.0, penalty first downs +2.3. | +12.595th | −12.55th |
Season so far
Arkansas State4–4 · 93rd-hardest schedule
L
at Memphis24–42missed +11
at Memphis24–42missed +11Wvs West Georgia52–7covered −31.5
L
at TCU7–31missed +19
at TCU7–31missed +19W
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5
vs Kennesaw State17–14missed −6.5L
at Louisiana20–23covered +5
at Louisiana20–23covered +5L
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3
vs South Alabama49–56missed −3Wat Southern Miss23–13covered −5.5
at Southern Miss23–13covered −5.5W
vs Georgia State38–32covered +2.5
vs Georgia State38–32covered +2.5Southern Miss3–5 · 102nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Alcorn State49–3covered −19.5
L
at Auburn8–43missed +32.5
at Auburn8–43missed +32.5L
vs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-game
vs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-gameL
at Tulane21–24covered +18.5
at Tulane21–24covered +18.5L
at Troy34–55missed +10
at Troy34–55missed +10Lvs Arkansas State13–23missed +5.5
vs Arkansas State13–23missed +5.5Wvs Louisiana35–31covered +10
vs Louisiana35–31covered +10W
at UL Monroe35–21covered −3.5
at UL Monroe35–21covered −3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 6:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is