Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Southern Miss
3–5 · Ours #95 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
8–43FinalWe had USM 17 – AUB 38
Auburn
4–4 · Ours #36 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.AUB 88%AUB won
AUB 88%AUB wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at AUB −29.5.AUB −32.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −20.3 · AUB covered by 2.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.9.56.5final 51 · under by 5.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.USM +30Llost 2.5 to the close
USM +30Llost 2.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Ethan Hampton18/27 · 146 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3014th pct
- Comp %
- 66.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q3 by Landry Lyddy
Byrum Brown18/29 · 226 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0634th pct
- Comp %
- 62.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Southern Missoffense | Played like AUB +32.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseAuburn | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36th | 38.1% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.1%▲5.4 | 64th |
| 7th | −0.32▼0.38 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.32▲0.42 | 93rd |
| 17th | −0.30▼0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.34 | 83rd |
| 8th | −0.34▼0.45 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.34▲0.46 | 92nd |
| 15th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 85th |
| Auburnoffense | defenseSouthern Miss | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82nd | 51.7%▲13.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.7%▼7.6 | 18th |
| 85th | +0.34▲0.34 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.26 | 15th |
| 72nd | +0.29▲0.31 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.29▼0.19 | 28th |
| 91st | +0.39▲0.35 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.39▼0.30 | 10th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Southern MissUSM | AuburnAUB | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 203rd | Own 2954th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +2.7 pts98th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4219th | 5848th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −10.421st | +10.479th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.0 pts6th | +1.7 pts99th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 049th | 199th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. AUB +18.3: turnovers +2.6, field position +3.1, kicking +1.9, 4th downs +3.6, return touchdowns +4.2, safeties +2.9. | −18.31st | +18.399th |
Season so far
Southern Miss3–5 · 102nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Alcorn State49–3covered −19.5
Lat Auburn8–43missed +32.5
at Auburn8–43missed +32.5L
vs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-game
vs UConn20–48missed +3QB change mid-gameL
at Tulane21–24covered +18.5
at Tulane21–24covered +18.5L
at Troy34–55missed +10
at Troy34–55missed +10L
vs Arkansas State13–23missed +5.5
vs Arkansas State13–23missed +5.5W
vs Louisiana35–31covered +10
vs Louisiana35–31covered +10W
at UL Monroe35–21covered −3.5
at UL Monroe35–21covered −3.5Auburn4–4 · 3rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5
vs Baylor17–16missed −6.5Wvs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5
vs Southern Miss43–8covered −32.5L
vs Florida39–44missed +2
vs Florida39–44missed +2W
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10
vs Vanderbilt21–15missed −10L
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5
at Tennessee14–24missed +6.5W
at Georgia27–24covered +19.5
at Georgia27–24covered +19.5L
vs LSU17–38missed +7
vs LSU17–38missed +7L
at Ole Miss15–45missed +10
at Ole Miss15–45missed +10Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is