Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Old Dominion
2–7 · Ours #120 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
0–26FinalWe had ODU 18 – LT 28
Louisiana Tech
6–2 · Ours #90 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.LT 74%LT won
LT 74%LT wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at LT −9.5.LT −14oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10.4 · LT covered by 12
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 46.4.44final 26 · under by 18
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.LT −10.5Wbeat the close by 3.5
LT −10.5Wbeat the close by 3.5Quarterbacksthis game
Jaxon Potter17/33 · 142 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2220th pct
- Comp %
- 51.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
Blake Baker28/34 · 303 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3070th pct
- Comp %
- 82.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Old Dominionoffense | Played like LT +24.5Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseLouisiana Tech | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6th | 25.0%▼3.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 25.0%▲14.6 | 95th |
| 15th | −0.20▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.20▲0.14 | 85th |
| 42nd | −0.02▲0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.02▼0.09 | 58th |
| 1st | −0.66▼0.52 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.66▲0.66 | 99th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼1.0 | 59th |
| Louisiana Techoffense | defenseOld Dominion | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83rd | 52.3%▲15.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.3%▼12.2 | 17th |
| 68th | +0.18▲0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.24 | 32nd |
| 83rd | +0.44▲0.39 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.42 | 17th |
| 34th | −0.06▼0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.06▼0.02 | 66th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Old DominionODU | Louisiana TechLT | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 181st | Own 3994th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.3 pts8th | 0.0 pts28th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 329th | 6569th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −21.08th | +21.092nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.8 pts12th | −0.6 pts19th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. LT +9.2: turnovers +2.6, field position +7.0, kicking +1.6, 4th downs +0.3, penalty first downs −2.3. | −9.214th | +9.286th |
Season so far
Old Dominion2–7 · 84th-hardest schedule
Wvs Norfolk State31–10missed −41
L
at Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5
at Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5L
vs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5
vs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5L
vs James Madison20–46missed +6.5
vs James Madison20–46missed +6.5L
at Georgia State10–42missed +2.5
at Georgia State10–42missed +2.5W
at App State10–3covered +9.5
at App State10–3covered +9.5L
vs Georgia Southern15–23missed +3QB change mid-game
vs Georgia Southern15–23missed +3QB change mid-gameLat Louisiana Tech0–26missed +14
at Louisiana Tech0–26missed +14L
vs Marshall23–36missed +3
vs Marshall23–36missed +3Louisiana Tech6–2 · 79th-hardest schedule
Wvs Northwestern State80–6covered −44.5
L
at LSU14–45covered +35
at LSU14–45covered +35L
at Baylor19–36covered +20
at Baylor19–36covered +20W
vs Army31–29covered −1
vs Army31–29covered −1W
vs Louisiana32–31missed −3
vs Louisiana32–31missed −3W
at UL Monroe24–0covered −13.5
at UL Monroe24–0covered −13.5Wvs Old Dominion26–0covered −14
vs Old Dominion26–0covered −14W
at South Alabama35–20covered −6
at South Alabama35–20covered −6Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is