Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Marshall

5–3 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−8.9
Rank
112
Résumé
72
Projected wins
6.5▲ 0.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at Penn StatePSUMRSH +20.9MRSH +24.5L 0–4514MRSH · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Middle TennesseeMTSUMRSH −8.5MRSH −15.0W 28–2662MTSU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at Missouri StateMOSTMRSH −3.9MRSH −3.0W 30–2445MOST · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Gardner-WebbGardner-WebbMRSH −32.4MRSH −24.5W 36–3550
Sat, Oct 310/3at James MadisonJMUMRSH +22.6MRSH +18.5L 17–4530JMU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10Coastal CarolinaCCUMRSH −6.8MRSH −2.5L 21–2767MRSH · L
Tue, Oct 2010/20South AlabamaUSAMRSH +2.6MRSH +2.5W 20–1361USA · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Old DominionODUMRSH −3.0MRSH −3.0W 36–23—MRSH · W
Sat, Nov 2811/28at UL MonroeULMMRSH −8.7—wk 13

Model on MRSH games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–2 · as the dog 1–2 · home 1–2, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.55–3 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.3
Bowl (6+)50%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.5 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1156th
Success rate44.9%48th
Pass EPA+0.0485th
Rush EPA+0.1914th
Explosive rate12.6%68th
Quality-drive rate54.4%47th
Points per quality drive3.0126th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.15118th
Success allowed43.0%91st
Pass EPA allowed+0.22121st
Rush EPA allowed+0.0894th
Explosive allowed13.2%97th
Havoc rate12.5%103rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.562nd
Turnover margin−3101st · exp. −5.5
Field position margin+1.0 yd67th
Hidden points / game−3.1gave up
Luck, wins+1.13.9 earned
One-score record4–1flipped 2–6
Rush rate over expected−1.8%73rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−8.9112th
Schedule played−6.2121st
Schedule remaining−8.3118th
Full schedule−7.0122nd
Pregame expected wins3.5of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 112th · −8.9Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMRSHgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Marshalloff +0.11 56thdef +0.15 allowed · 118th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.