Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Marshall
5–3 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−8.9
Rank
112
Résumé
72
Projected wins
6.5▲ 0.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on MRSH games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–2 · as the dog 1–2 · home 1–2, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 3 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
6.55–3 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.3
Bowl (6+)50%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 1.5 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game2%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1156th
Success rate44.9%48th
Pass EPA+0.0485th
Rush EPA+0.1914th
Explosive rate12.6%68th
Quality-drive rate54.4%47th
Points per quality drive3.0126th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.15118th
Success allowed43.0%91st
Pass EPA allowed+0.22121st
Rush EPA allowed+0.0894th
Explosive allowed13.2%97th
Havoc rate12.5%103rd
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.562nd
Turnover margin−3101st · exp. −5.5
Field position margin+1.0 yd67th
Hidden points / game−3.1gave up
Luck, wins+1.13.9 earned
One-score record4–1flipped 2–6
Rush rate over expected−1.8%73rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−8.9112th
Schedule played−6.2121st
Schedule remaining−8.3118th
Full schedule−7.0122nd
Pregame expected wins3.5of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 112th · −8.9Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Marshalloff +0.11 56thdef +0.15 allowed · 118th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Marshalloff +0.11 56thdef +0.15 allowed · 118th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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