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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Coastal Carolina

3–5 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−7.5
Rank
104
Résumé
114
Projected wins
3.4▼ 1.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at West VirginiaWVUCCU +9.8CCU +21.5L 24–3150CCU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12FordhamFordhamCCU −35.0CCU −36.0W 45–772
Sat, Sep 199/19at DelawareDELCCU +7.7CCU +5.0L 14–2250CCU · L
Thu, Sep 249/24LibertyLIBCCU +4.1CCU −1.0L 17–3423LIB · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Georgia SouthernGASOCCU +1.1CCU +2.5L 24–3148CCU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at MarshallMRSHCCU +6.8CCU +2.5W 27–2133MRSH · L
Fri, Oct 1610/16App StateAPPCCU +3.4CCU +1.0L 32–3543APP · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Georgia StateGASTCCU +11.2CCU +6.5W 31–2050GAST · L
Sat, Nov 711/7Old DominionODUCCU −2.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Arkansas StateARSTCCU +6.7—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at LouisianaULCCU +13.2—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at James MadisonJMUCCU +24.9—wk 13

Model on CCU games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–2 · as the dog 2–2 · home 0–3, away 3–1 · avg gap to the market +4.0 · closer than the market 4 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.43–5 banked, 4 to play · preseason 4.6
Bowl (6+)0%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 0.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0777th
Success rate41.6%84th
Pass EPA+0.0678th
Rush EPA+0.0769th
Explosive rate13.6%48th
Quality-drive rate47.8%89th
Points per quality drive3.698th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.16121st
Success allowed46.5%127th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1397th
Rush EPA allowed+0.19126th
Explosive allowed15.0%126th
Havoc rate12.9%93rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.729th
Turnover margin+343rd · exp. +1.0
Field position margin−2.1 yd107th
Hidden points / game−1.7gave up
Luck, wins−0.23.2 earned
One-score record1–4flipped 6–2
Rush rate over expected−1.2%63rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−7.5104th
Schedule played−3.292nd
Schedule remaining−4.289th
Full schedule−3.689th
Pregame expected wins2.3of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 104th · −7.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCCUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Coastal Carolinaoff +0.07 77thdef +0.16 allowed · 121st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.