Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
East Carolina
4–4 · Ours #91 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–17FinalWe had ECU 26 – ODU 25
Old Dominion
2–7 · Ours #88 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ECU 53%ECU won
ECU 53%ECU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ODU −2.5.ODU −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +1.1 · ECU covered by 5.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.7.48.5final 37 · under by 11.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ECU +2.5Wmatched the close
ECU +2.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Mitch Griffis4/12 · 58 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3213th pct
- Comp %
- 33.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q1 by Emory Williams
Quinn Henicle8/20 · 94 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.623rd pct
- Comp %
- 40.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| East Carolinaoffense | Played like ODU +2.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOld Dominion | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9th | 27.7%▼9.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 27.7%▲16.5 | 91st |
| 10th | −0.26▼0.23 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.27 | 90th |
| 10th | −0.43▼0.44 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.43▲0.59 | 90th |
| 22nd | −0.17▼0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.17▲0.10 | 78th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Old Dominionoffense | defenseEast Carolina | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8th | 26.7%▼1.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 26.7%▲13.4 | 92nd |
| 13th | −0.21▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.20 | 87th |
| 4th | −0.62▼0.40 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.62▲0.57 | 96th |
| 42nd | −0.01▲0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▼0.01 | 58th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| East CarolinaECU | Old DominionODU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2848th | Own 2741st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.8 pts72nd | +0.7 pts68th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6569th | 6055th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −4.336th | +4.364th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 594th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.9 pts9th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ECU +6.6: turnovers +5.2, field position +0.3, kicking +0.1, 4th downs −1.2, penalty first downs +2.3. | +6.679th | −6.621st |
Season so far
East Carolina4–4 · 96th-hardest schedule
L
at Alabama10–48missed +28
at Alabama10–48missed +28L
vs App State24–27missed −6.5
vs App State24–27missed −6.5Wat Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5
at Old Dominion20–17covered +2.5Wvs North Carolina Central42–9missed −37.5
W
vs Rice28–12covered −10
vs Rice28–12covered −10L
at UAB17–30missed −4.5
at UAB17–30missed −4.5L
at Memphis34–41covered +10.5QB change mid-game
at Memphis34–41covered +10.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Temple17–9covered −4
vs Temple17–9covered −4Old Dominion2–7 · 84th-hardest schedule
Wvs Norfolk State31–10missed −41
L
at Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5
at Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5Lvs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5
vs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5L
vs James Madison20–46missed +6.5
vs James Madison20–46missed +6.5L
at Georgia State10–42missed +2.5
at Georgia State10–42missed +2.5Wat App State10–3covered +9.5
at App State10–3covered +9.5L
vs Georgia Southern15–23missed +3QB change mid-game
vs Georgia Southern15–23missed +3QB change mid-gameL
at Louisiana Tech0–26missed +14
at Louisiana Tech0–26missed +14L
vs Marshall23–36missed +3
vs Marshall23–36missed +3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 3:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is