Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Old Dominion
2–7 · Ours #125 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–3FinalWe had ODU 21 – APP 31
App State
5–2 · Ours #86 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.APP 72%ODU won
APP 72%ODU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at APP −9.APP −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.6 · ODU covered by 16.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.3.45.5final 13 · under by 32.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.APP −9.5Lmatched the close
APP −9.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Quinn Henicle10/20 · 97 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3511th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Malachi Singleton5/23 · 72 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.791st pct
- Comp %
- 21.7
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Old Dominionoffense | Played like ODU +15.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseApp State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22nd | 33.8%▲6.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 33.8%▲10.4 | 78th |
| 16th | −0.19▲0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.27 | 84th |
| 15th | −0.34▼0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.34▲0.42 | 86th |
| 27th | −0.13▲0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.21 | 74th |
| 15th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.6 | 85th |
| App Stateoffense | defenseOld Dominion | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7th | 26.4%▼15.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 26.4%▲18.1 | 93rd |
| 2nd | −0.53▼0.65 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.53▲0.59 | 98th |
| 2nd | −0.81▼1.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.81▲1.03 | 98th |
| 20th | −0.19▼0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.19▲0.12 | 80th |
| 15th | 2▼1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.7 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Old DominionODU | App StateAPP | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2845th | Own 3269th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −4.5 pts1st | +0.6 pts63rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 8096th | 5336th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +10.178th | −10.122nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.5 pts22nd | −0.8 pts11th |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 199th | 049th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. APP +1.6: field position +1.4, kicking +3.6, 4th downs −0.4, safeties −2.9. | −1.642nd | +1.658th |
Season so far
Old Dominion2–7 · 84th-hardest schedule
Wvs Norfolk State31–10missed −41
L
at Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5
at Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5L
vs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5
vs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5L
vs James Madison20–46missed +6.5
vs James Madison20–46missed +6.5L
at Georgia State10–42missed +2.5
at Georgia State10–42missed +2.5Wat App State10–3covered +9.5
at App State10–3covered +9.5L
vs Georgia Southern15–23missed +3QB change mid-game
vs Georgia Southern15–23missed +3QB change mid-gameL
at Louisiana Tech0–26missed +14
at Louisiana Tech0–26missed +14L
vs Marshall23–36missed +3
vs Marshall23–36missed +3App State5–2 · 126th-hardest schedule
Wvs Maine55–3covered −20.5
Wat East Carolina27–24covered +6.5
at East Carolina27–24covered +6.5W
vs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5
vs Charlotte26–21missed −17.5L
at NC State31–41covered +13
at NC State31–41covered +13Lvs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5
vs Old Dominion3–10missed −9.5W
at Coastal Carolina35–32covered −1.5
at Coastal Carolina35–32covered −1.5Wvs James Madison34–31covered +12.5
vs James Madison34–31covered +12.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is