Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 1:00 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Marshall
4–3 · Ours #119Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–22Our projected score
Old Dominion
2–6 · Ours #128Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.MRSH 58%
MRSH 58%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.MRSH −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −3
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.45.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 46.9 · opened 46.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.MRSH −3.0-102 DraftKings50% to cover · -1.0% EV
MRSH −3.0-102 DraftKings50% to cover · -1.0% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Zion TurnerSenior · 5 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.11
- Comp %
- 64.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Jaxon PotterJunior · 1 start this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.23
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
New starter last game
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Old Dominionoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseMarshall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 138th | −0.18 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.15 | 117th |
| 138th | 30.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 43.0% | 89th |
| 137th | −0.23 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.22 | 121st |
| 133rd | −0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.08 | 94th |
| 132nd | 9.3% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 13.2% | 98th |
| Marshalloffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseOld Dominion | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55th | +0.11 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.08 | 20th |
| 48th | 44.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 39.2% | 42nd |
| 86th | +0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.05 | 33rd |
| 14th | +0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.11 | 12th |
| 68th | 12.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.5% | 38th |
Team stats
| Old DominionODU | MarshallMRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −6.7138th | +0.660th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −6.0135th | +1.068th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 36%135th | 54%45th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.74132nd | 3.05125th |
| Time of possession | 22:48135th | 26:24116th |
| Plays per game | 60121st | 6849th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −9 | −3 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 20 – 11 | 16 – 13 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 15.2%44th | 12.5%103rd |
Season so far
Marshall4–3 · 111th-hardest schedule
L
at Penn State0–45missed +23.5
at Penn State0–45missed +23.5W
vs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13QB change mid-game
vs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13QB change mid-gameW
at Missouri State30–24covered −4
at Missouri State30–24covered −4Wvs Gardner-Webb36–35missed −24.5
L
at James Madison17–45missed +15.5
at James Madison17–45missed +15.5L
vs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5
vs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5W
vs South Alabama20–13covered +1.5
vs South Alabama20–13covered +1.5Old Dominion2–6 · 77th-hardest schedule
Wvs Norfolk State31–10missed −41
L
at Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5
at Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5L
vs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5
vs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5Lvs James Madison20–46missed +6.5
vs James Madison20–46missed +6.5L
at Georgia State10–42missed +2.5
at Georgia State10–42missed +2.5W
at App State10–3covered +9.5
at App State10–3covered +9.5L
vs Georgia Southern15–23missed +3QB change mid-game
vs Georgia Southern15–23missed +3QB change mid-gameL
at Louisiana Tech0–26missed +14
at Louisiana Tech0–26missed +14Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is