East Carolina

Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs TEM · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:00 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

3–4 FBS · American Athletic · this season

Rating

−3.5

Rank

Résumé

Projected wins

6.0▼ 0.9 vs preseason

CFP odds

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line

DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call

Sat, Sep 59/5

at AlabamaALAECU +21.8ECU +28.5L 10–4818ECU · L

Sat, Sep 129/12

App StateAPPECU −9.8ECU −9.0L 24–2759ECU · L

Sat, Sep 199/19

at Old DominionODUECU −1.1ECU +2.5W 20–1749ECU · W

Sat, Sep 269/26North Carolina CentralNorth Carolina CentralECU −31.0ECU −37.5W 42–998

Sat, Oct 1010/10

RiceRICEECU −7.5ECU −9.5W 28–1259RICE · L

Thu, Oct 1510/15

at UABUABECU −7.4ECU −4.5L 17–3042ECU · L

Thu, Oct 2210/22

at MemphisMEMECU +6.6ECU +10.5L 34–4146ECU · W

Sat, Oct 3110/31

TempleTEMECU −5.6ECU −4.0ECU −4.0Pass

Fri, Nov 611/6

South FloridaUSFECU −1.4—wk 10

Sat, Nov 1411/14

at CharlotteCLTECU −15.2—wk 11

Sat, Nov 2111/21

at ArmyARMYECU +8.6—wk 12

Fri, Nov 2711/27

Florida AtlanticFAUECU −6.3—wk 13

Model on ECU games: 2–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 2–2 · home 0–1, away 2–3 · avg gap to the market +3.7 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations

Projected wins

6.03–4 banked, 5 to play · preseason 6.9

Bowl (6+)32%

9+ wins0%

11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 3.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture

Reach title game<1%

Win conference<1%

Make the CFP0%

First-round bye0%

Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS

rank of 138

Offense

EPA per play−0.01112th

Success rate37.9%125th

Pass EPA−0.01106th

Rush EPA−0.01111th

Explosive rate12.4%74th

Quality-drive rate48.8%85th

Points per quality drive3.0127th

Defense

EPA allowed−0.0727th

Success allowed35.4%18th

Pass EPA allowed−0.0340th

Rush EPA allowed−0.1012th

Explosive allowed12.9%92nd

Havoc rate17.2%15th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board

rank of 138

Special teams & luck

Special teams EPA / game−1.7113th

Turnover margin−6119th · exp. −2.5

Field position margin+0.5 yd73rd

Hidden points / game−4.5gave up

Luck, wins−0.63.6 earned

One-score record1–2flipped 4–3

Rush rate over expected−1.2%64th

Overall

Rating, pts vs average−3.586th

Schedule played−3.394th

Schedule remaining−7.0109th

Full schedule−5.0102nd

Pregame expected wins3.1of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll

Ours 86th · −3.5Week 9

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset

East Carolinaoff −0.01 112thdef −0.07 allowed · 27th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.