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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at GASO · Sat, Oct 31 · 6:30 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

App State

5–2 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−5.4
Rank
94
Résumé
51
Projected wins
7.9▲ 3.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5MaineMaineAPP −26.3APP −20.5W 55–396
Sat, Sep 129/12at East CarolinaECUAPP +9.8APP +9.0W 27–2441ECU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19CharlotteCLTAPP −16.4APP −19.0W 26–2161CLT · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at NC StateNCSUAPP +20.1APP +13.0L 31–4151NCSU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10Old DominionODUAPP −9.6APP −9.5L 3–1043APP · L
Fri, Oct 1610/16at Coastal CarolinaCCUAPP −3.4APP −1.0W 35–3257APP · W
Thu, Oct 2210/22James MadisonJMUAPP +14.5APP +11.0W 34–3153JMU · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Georgia SouthernGASOAPP +2.8APP +6.0APP +5.5Lean · +0.1%
Sat, Nov 711/7Georgia StateGASTAPP −2.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at MarshallMRSHAPP −2.0—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21UL MonroeULMAPP −17.3—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27at South AlabamaUSAAPP PK—wk 13

Model on APP games: 2–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–4 · as the dog 1–0 · home 0–3, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +2.6 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.95–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 4.1
Bowl (6+)89%
9+ wins7%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game26%
Win conference11%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0966th
Success rate41.6%82nd
Pass EPA+0.2134th
Rush EPA−0.05120th
Explosive rate15.2%20th
Quality-drive rate55.2%42nd
Points per quality drive4.074th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0157th
Success allowed41.5%70th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0150th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0368th
Explosive allowed10.8%42nd
Havoc rate14.7%58th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.274th
Turnover margin+89th · exp. +7.0
Field position margin+3.4 yd33rd
Hidden points / game+0.7banked
Luck, wins+0.84.2 earned
One-score record4–1flipped 2–5
Rush rate over expected−3.9%98th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−5.494th
Schedule played−7.1126th
Schedule remaining−8.7120th
Full schedule−7.8127th
Pregame expected wins3.2of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 94th · −5.4Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUAPPgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
App Stateoff +0.09 66thdef +0.01 allowed · 57th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.