Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Georgia Southern
3–4 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−2.8
Rank
82
Résumé
90
Projected wins
5.7▲ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on GASO games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 2–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +4.5 · closer than the market 2 of 6
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
5.73–4 banked, 5 to play · preseason 4.9
Bowl (6+)26%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 5 games left add 2.7 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game17%
Win conference8%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
7 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0587th
Success rate44.1%57th
Pass EPA+0.1064th
Rush EPA−0.03116th
Explosive rate12.0%82nd
Quality-drive rate52.0%63rd
Points per quality drive3.977th
Defense
EPA allowed0.0052nd
Success allowed39.6%45th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0153rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0159th
Explosive allowed11.2%65th
Havoc rate15.0%46th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.3130th
Turnover margin−4109th · exp. +1.5
Field position margin−0.5 yd83rd
Hidden points / game−2.7gave up
Luck, wins−0.53.5 earned
One-score record2–2flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected−12.8%136th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−2.882nd
Schedule played−1.278th
Schedule remaining−5.694th
Full schedule−3.283rd
Pregame expected wins2.7of 7
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 82nd · −2.8Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Georgia Southernoff +0.05 87thdef 0.00 allowed · 52nd
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Georgia Southernoff +0.05 87thdef 0.00 allowed · 52nd
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
at
at 
at 
at 

at
at 