Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Georgia Southern

3–4 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−2.8
Rank
82
Résumé
90
Projected wins
5.7▲ 0.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Charleston SouthernCharleston SouthernGASO −28.8GASO −28.5W 31–070
Sat, Sep 129/12at ClemsonCLEMGASO +16.6GASO +21.0L 7–2248GASO · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at Jacksonville StateJXSTGASO +8.8GASO +3.0L 27–3132JXST · W
Sat, Sep 269/26HoustonHOUGASO +11.5GASO +20.5L 28–4254GASO · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at Coastal CarolinaCCUGASO −1.1GASO −2.5W 31–2452CCU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10James MadisonJMUGASO +17.6GASO +8.5L 24–2751JMU · L
Thu, Oct 1510/15at Old DominionODUGASO −1.9GASO −4.0W 23–1564ODU · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31App StateAPPGASO −2.8GASO −6.0APP +5.5Lean · +0.1%
Sat, Nov 711/7MarshallMRSHGASO −6.5—wk 10
Sat, Nov 2111/21at TroyTROYGASO −4.4—wk 12

Model on GASO games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–2 · home 2–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +4.5 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.73–4 banked, 5 to play · preseason 4.9
Bowl (6+)26%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game17%
Win conference8%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0587th
Success rate44.1%57th
Pass EPA+0.1064th
Rush EPA−0.03116th
Explosive rate12.0%82nd
Quality-drive rate52.0%63rd
Points per quality drive3.977th
Defense
EPA allowed0.0052nd
Success allowed39.6%45th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0153rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0159th
Explosive allowed11.2%65th
Havoc rate15.0%46th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−3.3130th
Turnover margin−4109th · exp. +1.5
Field position margin−0.5 yd83rd
Hidden points / game−2.7gave up
Luck, wins−0.53.5 earned
One-score record2–2flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected−12.8%136th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−2.882nd
Schedule played−1.278th
Schedule remaining−5.694th
Full schedule−3.283rd
Pregame expected wins2.7of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 82nd · −2.8Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUGASOgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Georgia Southernoff +0.05 87thdef 0.00 allowed · 52nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.