Week 7 report · Thu, Oct 15 · 2026 Week 7
Georgia Southern
3–4 · Ours #91 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–15FinalWe had GASO 25 – ODU 24
Old Dominion
2–7 · Ours #111 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.GASO 55%GASO won
GASO 55%GASO wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at GASO −3.5.GASO −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.9 · GASO covered by 5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 49.0.45final 38 · under by 7
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ODU +4Lbeat the close by 1.0
ODU +4Lbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Turner Helton23/30 · 205 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0242nd pct
- Comp %
- 76.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Ryan Huff9/14 · 115 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0444th pct
- Comp %
- 64.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Replaced Quinn Henicle in Q3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia Southernoffense | Played like GASO +11.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOld Dominion | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67th | 46.7%▲4.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.7%▼5.6 | 33rd |
| 45th | +0.02▼0.04 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.02▼0.05 | 55th |
| 43rd | −0.01▼0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.11 | 57th |
| 54th | +0.07▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.07▼0.18 | 46th |
| 41st | 1▼0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
| Old Dominionoffense | defenseGeorgia Southern | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19th | 32.7%▲5.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 32.7%▲10.7 | 81st |
| 16th | −0.18▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.29 | 84th |
| 29th | −0.15▲0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.35 | 71st |
| 16th | −0.22▼0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.22▲0.30 | 84th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Georgia SouthernGASO | Old DominionODU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3586th | Own 181st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.9 pts93rd | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7591st | 5540th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +7.171st | −7.129th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.4 pts26th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. GASO +10.1: turnovers +2.6, field position +5.9, kicking +1.4, 4th downs +0.9, penalty first downs −0.8. | +10.189th | −10.111th |
Season so far
Georgia Southern3–4 · 77th-hardest schedule
Wvs Charleston Southern31–0covered −28.5
L
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5
at Clemson7–22covered +19.5L
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5
at Jacksonville State27–31missed +3.5L
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5
vs Houston28–42covered +17.5W
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2
at Coastal Carolina31–24covered −2L
vs James Madison24–27covered +7
vs James Madison24–27covered +7Wat Old Dominion23–15covered −3QB change mid-game
at Old Dominion23–15covered −3QB change mid-gameOld Dominion2–7 · 84th-hardest schedule
Wvs Norfolk State31–10missed −41
L
at Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5
at Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5L
vs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5
vs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5Lvs James Madison20–46missed +6.5
vs James Madison20–46missed +6.5L
at Georgia State10–42missed +2.5
at Georgia State10–42missed +2.5W
at App State10–3covered +9.5
at App State10–3covered +9.5Lvs Georgia Southern15–23missed +3QB change mid-game
vs Georgia Southern15–23missed +3QB change mid-gameL
at Louisiana Tech0–26missed +14
at Louisiana Tech0–26missed +14L
vs Marshall23–36missed +3
vs Marshall23–36missed +3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 15, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is