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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Georgia State

4–4 FBS · Sun Belt · this season
Rating
−5.5
Rank
96
Résumé
98
Projected wins
6.9▲ 2.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Fri, Sep 49/4North Carolina A&TNorth Carolina A&TGAST −27.3GAST −28.5W 59–1085
Sat, Sep 129/12at Kennesaw StateKENNGAST +7.2GAST +9.5W 31–1759GAST · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at UCFUCFGAST +13.0GAST +20.5L 30–4430GAST · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Northern IllinoisNIUGAST −17.5GAST −9.0W 35–1436GAST · W
Sat, Oct 310/3Old DominionODUGAST −5.5GAST −2.5W 42–1094GAST · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at James MadisonJMUGAST +10.8GAST +12.0L 22–4930GAST · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at Arkansas StateARSTGAST −1.0GAST −2.5L 32–3837ARST · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31Coastal CarolinaCCUGAST −11.2GAST −6.5L 20–3151GAST · L
Sat, Nov 711/7at App StateAPPGAST +2.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Georgia SouthernGASOGAST −2.8—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at MarshallMRSHGAST −2.3—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28LouisianaULGAST −1.1—wk 13

Model on GAST games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–1 · as the dog 3–1 · home 3–1, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +3.8 · closer than the market 6 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.94–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 4.0
Bowl (6+)63%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game3%
Win conference1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1446th
Success rate45.6%40th
Pass EPA+0.1841st
Rush EPA+0.0959th
Explosive rate15.4%18th
Quality-drive rate54.5%45th
Points per quality drive4.357th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.13112th
Success allowed41.4%69th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0782nd
Rush EPA allowed+0.20129th
Explosive allowed15.8%133rd
Havoc rate15.7%36th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.211th
Turnover margin−184th · exp. −3.5
Field position margin−4.7 yd127th
Hidden points / game−4.1gave up
Luck, wins−0.54.5 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 5–3
Rush rate over expected−0.2%53rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−5.596th
Schedule played−8.0132nd
Schedule remaining−4.490th
Full schedule−6.7121st
Pregame expected wins4.1of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 96th · −5.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasPurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUGASTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Georgia Stateoff +0.14 46thdef +0.13 allowed · 112th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.