Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Old Dominion
2–7 · Ours #109 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–42FinalWe had ODU 23 – GAST 29
Georgia State
4–4 · Ours #90 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.GAST 63%GAST won
GAST 63%GAST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at GAST +1.5.GAST −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.5 · GAST covered by 29.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.5.51.5final 52 · over by 0.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.GAST −2.5Wmatched the close
GAST −2.5Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Quinn Henicle8/15 · 49 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.438th pct
- Comp %
- 53.3
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Relieved in Q2 by Ryan Huff
Cameran Brown14/20 · 284 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +1.0099th pct
- Comp %
- 70.0
- TD
- 6
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Old Dominionoffense | Played like GAST +44.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseGeorgia State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5th | 23.9%▼5.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 23.9%▲19.7 | 95th |
| 8th | −0.31▼0.12 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.31▲0.53 | 92nd |
| 9th | −0.45▼0.21 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.45▲0.58 | 91st |
| 30th | −0.10▲0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.38 | 70th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
| Georgia Stateoffense | defenseOld Dominion | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92nd | 58.1%▲14.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 58.1%▼18.9 | 8th |
| 95th | +0.50▲0.45 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.50▼0.60 | 5th |
| 100th | +1.34▲1.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +1.34▼1.47 | 1st |
| 39th | −0.04▼0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.05 | 62nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Old DominionODU | Georgia StateGAST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2845th | Own 3062nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.6 pts15th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4626th | 317th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −29.42nd | +29.498th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts28th | +0.5 pts80th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. GAST +0.6: field position +0.9, kicking +1.1, 4th downs +1.2, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns −4.2. | −0.648th | +0.652nd |
Season so far
Old Dominion2–7 · 84th-hardest schedule
Wvs Norfolk State31–10missed −41
L
at Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5
at Virginia Tech21–44missed +19.5L
vs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5
vs East Carolina17–20missed −2.5L
vs James Madison20–46missed +6.5
vs James Madison20–46missed +6.5Lat Georgia State10–42missed +2.5
at Georgia State10–42missed +2.5W
at App State10–3covered +9.5
at App State10–3covered +9.5L
vs Georgia Southern15–23missed +3QB change mid-game
vs Georgia Southern15–23missed +3QB change mid-gameL
at Louisiana Tech0–26missed +14
at Louisiana Tech0–26missed +14L
vs Marshall23–36missed +3
vs Marshall23–36missed +3Georgia State4–4 · 132nd-hardest schedule
Wvs North Carolina A&T59–10covered −28.5
W
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5
at Kennesaw State31–17covered +7.5L
at UCF30–44covered +17.5
at UCF30–44covered +17.5W
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10
vs Northern Illinois35–14covered −10Wvs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5
vs Old Dominion42–10covered −2.5Lat James Madison22–49missed +8
at James Madison22–49missed +8L
at Arkansas State32–38missed −2.5QB change mid-game
at Arkansas State32–38missed −2.5QB change mid-gameL
vs Coastal Carolina20–31missed −4
vs Coastal Carolina20–31missed −4Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is