Oregon
5–3 · Ours #27Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
16–32Our projected score
AP #2Ohio State
6–1 · Ours #1Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.OSU 83%
OSU 83%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.OSU −14oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −15.5 · first seenThe first DraftKings or FanDuel number we captured for this game. −6
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.45.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 48.1 · first seen 52.5
Our call · PassNo bet: our line and the best DraftKings or FanDuel price don't beat the bookmaker's cut on this side.OSU −14.0-105 DraftKings51% to cover · -1.0% EV
OSU −14.0-105 DraftKings51% to cover · -1.0% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Dylan RaiolaJunior · 3 starts this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.02106th
- Comp %
- 64.9
- TD
- 6
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
New starter last game
Luke FaheyFreshman · 3 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.35
- Comp %
- 69.2
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Julian Sayin started Weeks 1–7 · Out on the Game Day reportThe matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Ohio Stateoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseOregon | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29th | +0.17 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.05 | 30th |
| 14th | 49.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 38.0% | 31st |
| 5th | +0.34 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.10 | 21st |
| 109th | 0.00 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | 0.00 | 55th |
| 31st | 14.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.4% | 69th |
| Oregonoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseOhio State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88th | +0.04 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.08 | 19th |
| 89th | 41.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 34.9% | 13th |
| 71st | +0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.11 | 19th |
| 105th | +0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.04 | 36th |
| 39th | 13.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.1% | 26th |
Team stats
| Ohio StateOSU | OregonORE | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +0.658th | +2.320th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +5.618th | +1.652nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 57%33rd | 46%100th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.7619th | 4.4738th |
| Time of possession | 23:18134th | 26:36115th |
| Plays per game | 6940th | 6938th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +1 | 0 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 10 – 11 | 15 – 15 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 14.0%74th | 15.9%31st |
Season so far
Oregon5–3 · 7th-hardest schedule
W
vs Boise State34–27missed −25
vs Boise State34–27missed −25L
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24
at Oklahoma State31–39missed −24Wvs Portland State84–0covered −58.5
W
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-game
at USC41–27covered −3.5QB change mid-gameL
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5
vs UCLA15–17missed −10.5W
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5
vs Nebraska17–14missed −6.5L
at Illinois10–21missed −10
at Illinois10–21missed −10W
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5
vs Northwestern34–26covered −3.5Ohio State6–1 · 50th-hardest schedule
W
vs Ball State56–3covered −50
vs Ball State56–3covered −50L
at Texas23–24covered +2
at Texas23–24covered +2W
vs Kent State59–3covered −52
vs Kent State59–3covered −52Wvs Illinois42–19missed −26
vs Illinois42–19missed −26W
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5W
vs Maryland45–16missed −31
vs Maryland45–16missed −31W
at Indiana19–15covered −2.5
at Indiana19–15covered −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 6:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is