Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at NU · Sat, Nov 7 · time TBD →
Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Iowa
6–2 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+13.6
Rank
13
Résumé
32
Projected wins
8.0▲ 0.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
2%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on IOWA games: 2–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 2–3 · home 0–2, away 2–3 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 1 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.06–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 7.1
Bowl (6+)90%
9+ wins8%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 2.0 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP2%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all0%
- A CFP bid: 3% with a win vs Wisconsin, 0% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0586th
Success rate44.6%52nd
Pass EPA+0.0486th
Rush EPA+0.0773rd
Explosive rate11.9%84th
Quality-drive rate47.1%92nd
Points per quality drive4.533rd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0628th
Success allowed35.6%19th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1088th
Rush EPA allowed−0.223rd
Explosive allowed10.0%25th
Havoc rate16.7%22nd
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.632nd
Turnover margin−184th · exp. −0.5
Field position margin+4.4 yd23rd
Hidden points / game+1.0banked
Luck, wins+0.85.2 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 5–3
Rush rate over expected−5.1%109th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+13.613th
Schedule played+3.241st
Schedule remaining+5.644th
Full schedule+4.148th
Pregame expected wins3.5of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 13th · +13.6AP NRWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Iowaoff +0.05 86thdef −0.06 allowed · 28th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Iowaoff +0.05 86thdef −0.06 allowed · 28th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.


at 
at
at 
at 
at 