Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Iowa

6–2 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+13.6
Rank
13
Résumé
32
Projected wins
8.0▲ 0.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
2%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Northern IllinoisNIUIOWA −27.3IOWA −31.5W 40–092NIU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Iowa StateISUIOWA −15.6IOWA −14.5W 16–1352ISU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19Northern IowaNorthern IowaIOWA −40.5IOWA −37.5W 55–097
Sat, Sep 269/26at MichiganMICHIOWA +6.6IOWA +4.5W 20–1943MICH · L
Sat, Oct 310/3Ohio StateOSUIOWA +11.6IOWA +14.0L 14–3120IOWA · L
Fri, Oct 910/9at WashingtonWASHIOWA PKIOWA +2.5W 41–2464IOWA · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at MinnesotaMINNIOWA −11.7IOWA −7.0L 10–1351IOWA · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31WisconsinWISIOWA −1.6IOWA −3.0W 30–0—WIS · L
Sat, Nov 711/7at NorthwesternNUIOWA +0.8IOWA +2.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14PurduePURIOWA −16.8—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at IllinoisILLIOWA −4.5—wk 12

Model on IOWA games: 2–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 2–3 · home 0–2, away 2–3 · avg gap to the market +2.5 · closer than the market 1 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.06–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 7.1
Bowl (6+)90%
9+ wins8%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP2%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all0%
  • A CFP bid: 3% with a win vs Wisconsin, 0% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0586th
Success rate44.6%52nd
Pass EPA+0.0486th
Rush EPA+0.0773rd
Explosive rate11.9%84th
Quality-drive rate47.1%92nd
Points per quality drive4.533rd
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0628th
Success allowed35.6%19th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1088th
Rush EPA allowed−0.223rd
Explosive allowed10.0%25th
Havoc rate16.7%22nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.632nd
Turnover margin−184th · exp. −0.5
Field position margin+4.4 yd23rd
Hidden points / game+1.0banked
Luck, wins+0.85.2 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 5–3
Rush rate over expected−5.1%109th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+13.613th
Schedule played+3.241st
Schedule remaining+5.644th
Full schedule+4.148th
Pregame expected wins3.5of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 13th · +13.6AP NRWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUIOWAgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Iowaoff +0.05 86thdef −0.06 allowed · 28th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.