Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
AP #1Ohio State
6–1 · Ours #1 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–24FinalWe had OSU 28 – TEX 29
AP #4Texas
5–2 · Ours #11 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TEX 52%TEX won
TEX 52%TEX wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TEX −1.5.TEX −2oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −0.8 · OSU covered by 1
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.8.51final 47 · under by 4
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.OSU +1.5Wlost 0.5 to the close
OSU +1.5Wlost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Julian Sayin17/32 · 278 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2161st pct
- Comp %
- 53.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Arch Manning23/37 · 195 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1252nd pct
- Comp %
- 62.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ohio Stateoffense | Played like TEX +11.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTexas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36th | 38.1%▼15.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.1%▼4.8 | 64th |
| 33rd | −0.06▼0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▼0.09 | 67th |
| 64th | +0.21▼0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.33 | 36th |
| 7th | −0.37▼0.46 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.37▲0.21 | 93rd |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Texasoffense | defenseOhio State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72nd | 48.1%▲6.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 48.1%▼19.1 | 28th |
| 60th | +0.12▲0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.30 | 40th |
| 55th | +0.12▲0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.34 | 45th |
| 62nd | +0.12▲0.14 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.25 | 38th |
| 15th | 2▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ohio StateOSU | TexasTEX | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3688th | Own 215th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −0.1 pts28th | +0.7 pts66th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6363rd | 7794th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −12.817th | +12.883rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.6 pts19th | +0.6 pts82nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. OSU +5.6: turnovers +2.6, field position +5.1, kicking −0.6, 4th downs −1.5. | +5.675th | −5.625th |
Season so far
Ohio State6–1 · 50th-hardest schedule
W
vs Ball State56–3covered −50
vs Ball State56–3covered −50Lat Texas23–24covered +2
at Texas23–24covered +2W
vs Kent State59–3covered −52
vs Kent State59–3covered −52W
vs Illinois42–19missed −26
vs Illinois42–19missed −26W
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5W
vs Maryland45–16missed −31
vs Maryland45–16missed −31W
at Indiana19–15covered −2.5
at Indiana19–15covered −2.5Texas5–2 · 2nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Texas State59–7covered −29.5
vs Texas State59–7covered −29.5Wvs Ohio State24–23missed −2
vs Ohio State24–23missed −2W
vs UTSA30–6missed −30
vs UTSA30–6missed −30W
at Tennessee20–17missed −5.5
at Tennessee20–17missed −5.5L
at Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5
at Oklahoma24–27missed −7.5L
vs Florida24–27missed −11.5
vs Florida24–27missed −11.5W
vs Ole Miss34–27covered −3
vs Ole Miss34–27covered −3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is