Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
AP #4Ohio State
6–1 · Ours #3 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
19–15FinalWe had OSU 30 – IU 23
AP #5Indiana
7–1 · Ours #7 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OSU 67%OSU won
OSU 67%OSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OSU −3.5.OSU −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −7 · OSU covered by 1.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.2.50.5final 34 · under by 16.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.OSU −3.5Wlost 1.0 to the close
OSU −3.5Wlost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Julian Sayin15/29 · 235 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0647th pct
- Comp %
- 51.7
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Josh Hoover20/40 · 296 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0445th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ohio Stateoffense | Played like IU +0.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseIndiana | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32nd | 36.8%▼16.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.8%▼0.8 | 68th |
| 33rd | −0.06▼0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▼0.01 | 67th |
| 40th | −0.04▼0.43 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▼0.02 | 60th |
| 32nd | −0.09▼0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.09 | 68th |
| 15th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
| Indianaoffense | defenseOhio State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th | 34.8%▼9.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.8%▼3.6 | 75th |
| 32nd | −0.07▼0.23 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▼0.09 | 68th |
| 49th | +0.04▼0.24 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.25 | 51st |
| 15th | −0.23▼0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.16 | 85th |
| 41st | 1▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ohio StateOSU | IndianaIU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3061st | Own 2737th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts66th | −3.9 pts2nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6876th | 6978th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.157th | −2.143rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.7 pts87th | −0.9 pts9th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. OSU +4.8: turnovers −2.6, field position +1.3, kicking +3.2, 4th downs +2.2, penalty first downs +0.8. | +4.872nd | −4.828th |
Season so far
Ohio State6–1 · 50th-hardest schedule
W
vs Ball State56–3covered −50
vs Ball State56–3covered −50L
at Texas23–24covered +2
at Texas23–24covered +2W
vs Kent State59–3covered −52
vs Kent State59–3covered −52W
vs Illinois42–19missed −26
vs Illinois42–19missed −26W
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5W
vs Maryland45–16missed −31
vs Maryland45–16missed −31Wat Indiana19–15covered −2.5
at Indiana19–15covered −2.5Indiana7–1 · 34th-hardest schedule
W
vs North Texas52–16missed −40
vs North Texas52–16missed −40Wvs Howard55–0missed −58
W
vs Western Kentucky38–0missed −44.5
vs Western Kentucky38–0missed −44.5W
vs Northwestern29–23missed −20.5
vs Northwestern29–23missed −20.5W
at Rutgers47–15covered −24.5
at Rutgers47–15covered −24.5W
at Nebraska20–17missed −9
at Nebraska20–17missed −9Lvs Ohio State15–19missed +2.5
vs Ohio State15–19missed +2.5W
at Michigan13–6missed −7.5
at Michigan13–6missed −7.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 11:20 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is