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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Ball State

3–5 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−14.1
Rank
128
Résumé
103
Projected wins
4.7▲ 1.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at Ohio StateOSUBALL +50.4BALL +50.5L 3–566BALL · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Stony BrookStony BrookBALL −28.8BALL −13.5W 41–1777
Sat, Sep 199/19at LibertyLIBBALL +22.4BALL +14.5L 15–5129LIB · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Kent StateKENTBALL +4.7BALL +3.5L 13–2642KENT · W
Sat, Oct 310/3ToledoTOLBALL +23.0BALL +19.5L 24–3946TOL · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at NorthwesternNUBALL +35.6BALL +36.0L 14–4521BALL · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Bowling GreenBGSUBALL +6.8BALL +7.5W 32–3161BALL · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24Sacramento StateSACBALL −12.3BALL −11.5W 34–1777BALL · W
Wed, Nov 411/4at MassachusettsMASSBALL +2.0BALL +3.5wk 10
Wed, Nov 1111/11BuffaloBUFBALL −1.0—wk 11
Tue, Nov 1711/17at OhioOHIOBALL +16.5—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Central MichiganCMUBALL −2.7—wk 13

Model on BALL games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 2–1 · home 3–0, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +2.3 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.73–5 banked, 4 to play · preseason 2.9
Bowl (6+)3%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0773rd
Success rate40.0%105th
Pass EPA+0.1649th
Rush EPA−0.03115th
Explosive rate10.5%117th
Quality-drive rate39.0%130th
Points per quality drive4.441st
Defense
EPA allowed+0.13110th
Success allowed42.2%78th
Pass EPA allowed+0.21120th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0576th
Explosive allowed13.2%98th
Havoc rate13.9%73rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.1104th
Turnover margin−6119th · exp. −1.0
Field position margin+1.6 yd55th
Hidden points / game−5.6gave up
Luck, wins+0.22.8 earned
One-score record1–0flipped 2–6
Rush rate over expected−0.1%52nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−14.1128th
Schedule played−1.982nd
Schedule remaining−9.3123rd
Full schedule−4.695th
Pregame expected wins1.5of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 128th · −14.1Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUBALLgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Ball Stateoff +0.07 73rddef +0.13 allowed · 110th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.