Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Kent State
3–6 · Ours #134 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
3–59FinalWe had KENT -2 – OSU 54
AP #6Ohio State
6–1 · Ours #2 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OSU 100%OSU won
OSU 100%OSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OSU −51.5.OSU −52oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −55.9 · OSU covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.5.58.5final 62 · over by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.OSU −52Wmatched the close
OSU −52Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Dru DeShields6/15 · 35 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.495th pct
- Comp %
- 40.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Julian Sayin18/22 · 241 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4783rd pct
- Comp %
- 81.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kent Stateoffense | Played like OSU +48.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOhio State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 14.3%▼20.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 14.3%▲20.3 | 99th |
| 3rd | −0.43▼0.34 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.43▲0.33 | 97th |
| 15th | −0.33▼0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.18 | 85th |
| 2nd | −0.56▼0.45 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.56▲0.55 | 98th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Ohio Stateoffense | defenseKent State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98th | 65.9%▲17.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 65.9%▼21.3 | 2nd |
| 88th | +0.38▲0.21 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.30 | 12th |
| 85th | +0.47▲0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.47▼0.37 | 15th |
| 81st | +0.26▲0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.21 | 20th |
| 15th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.7 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kent StateKENT | Ohio StateOSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3063rd | Own 3994th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.4 pts59th | +0.5 pts60th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 285th | 4118th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −37.91st | +37.999th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.2 pts4th | −0.5 pts24th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. OSU +9.9: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.9, 4th downs +1.0, penalty first downs −0.8, return touchdowns +4.2. | −9.912th | +9.988th |
Season so far
Kent State3–6 · 91st-hardest schedule
L
at South Carolina0–57missed +35.5
at South Carolina0–57missed +35.5Wvs Wofford36–15covered −10
Lat Ohio State3–59missed +52
at Ohio State3–59missed +52W
vs Ball State26–13covered −3
vs Ball State26–13covered −3L
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5
vs Ohio10–13covered +3.5L
at Western Michigan7–38missed +14
at Western Michigan7–38missed +14L
at South Florida2–29missed +21
at South Florida2–29missed +21W
vs Akron35–20covered −3
vs Akron35–20covered −3L
at Sacramento State10–31missed −7
at Sacramento State10–31missed −7Ohio State6–1 · 50th-hardest schedule
Wvs Ball State56–3covered −50
vs Ball State56–3covered −50L
at Texas23–24covered +2
at Texas23–24covered +2Wvs Kent State59–3covered −52
vs Kent State59–3covered −52W
vs Illinois42–19missed −26
vs Illinois42–19missed −26W
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5W
vs Maryland45–16missed −31
vs Maryland45–16missed −31W
at Indiana19–15covered −2.5
at Indiana19–15covered −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is