Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Ball State
3–5 · Ours #133 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
3–56FinalWe had BALL 1 – OSU 52
AP #1Ohio State
6–1 · Ours #1 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OSU 100%OSU won
OSU 100%OSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OSU −50.5.OSU −50oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −50.4 · OSU covered by 3
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 53.2.55.5final 59 · over by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BALL +50.5Lbeat the close by 0.5
BALL +50.5Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Keldric Luster18/33 · 89 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.486th pct
- Comp %
- 54.5
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Julian Sayin21/25 · 320 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.7495th pct
- Comp %
- 84.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ball Stateoffense | Played like OSU +45.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOhio State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3rd | 20.6%▼21.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 20.6%▲13.0 | 97th |
| 6th | −0.34▼0.42 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.34▲0.23 | 94th |
| 10th | −0.43▼0.66 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.43▲0.30 | 90th |
| 21st | −0.18▼0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.18▲0.10 | 79th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Ohio Stateoffense | defenseBall State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94th | 60.5%▲10.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 60.5%▼17.6 | 6th |
| 94th | +0.45▲0.30 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.45▼0.29 | 6th |
| 95th | +0.74▲0.48 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.74▼0.45 | 5th |
| 40th | −0.03▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.07 | 60th |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.7 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ball StateBALL | Ohio StateOSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2951st | Own 2416th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.6 pts89th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3410th | 4321st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −53.21st | +53.2100th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts30th | +0.8 pts89th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BALL +2.9: field position +1.7, kicking +1.2, 4th downs −1.5, penalty first downs +1.5. | +2.965th | −2.935th |
Season so far
Ball State3–5 · 78th-hardest schedule
Lat Ohio State3–56missed +50
at Ohio State3–56missed +50Wvs Stony Brook41–17covered −13.5
L
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5
at Liberty15–51missed +14.5L
at Kent State13–26missed +3
at Kent State13–26missed +3L
vs Toledo24–39covered +21
vs Toledo24–39covered +21L
at Northwestern14–45covered +35
at Northwestern14–45covered +35W
at Bowling Green32–31covered +5.5
at Bowling Green32–31covered +5.5W
vs Sacramento State34–17covered −14.5
vs Sacramento State34–17covered −14.5Ohio State6–1 · 50th-hardest schedule
Wvs Ball State56–3covered −50
vs Ball State56–3covered −50L
at Texas23–24covered +2
at Texas23–24covered +2Wvs Kent State59–3covered −52
vs Kent State59–3covered −52W
vs Illinois42–19missed −26
vs Illinois42–19missed −26W
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5W
vs Maryland45–16missed −31
vs Maryland45–16missed −31W
at Indiana19–15covered −2.5
at Indiana19–15covered −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 12:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is