Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Nebraska
5–2 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+12.3
Rank
17
Résumé
41
Projected wins
8.0▲ 3.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
1%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on NEB games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 2–2 · home 2–0, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +3.9 · closer than the market 3 of 6
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
8.05–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 4.8
Bowl (6+)93%
9+ wins6%
11+ wins0%
The 5 games left add 3.0 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP1%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
7 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1540th
Success rate43.9%60th
Pass EPA+0.1454th
Rush EPA+0.1721st
Explosive rate13.5%50th
Quality-drive rate51.4%67th
Points per quality drive5.010th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.166th
Success allowed33.3%3rd
Pass EPA allowed−0.255th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0437th
Explosive allowed9.8%22nd
Havoc rate17.4%13th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.4110th
Turnover margin+435th · exp. +3.5
Field position margin0.0 yd77th
Hidden points / game+3.8banked
Luck, wins−0.35.3 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 7–0
Rush rate over expected−2.7%84th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+12.317th
Schedule played+1.556th
Schedule remaining+6.936th
Full schedule+4.049th
Pregame expected wins3.1of 7
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 17th · +12.3Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Nebraskaoff +0.15 40thdef −0.16 allowed · 6th
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Nebraskaoff +0.15 40thdef −0.16 allowed · 6th
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.


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