Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Nebraska

5–2 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+12.3
Rank
17
Résumé
41
Projected wins
8.0▲ 3.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5OhioOHIONEB −15.3NEB −23.5W 49–2183OHIO · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Bowling GreenBGSUNEB −28.1NEB −28.5W 56–798BGSU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19North DakotaNorth DakotaNEB −36.5NEB −27.5W 34–777
Sat, Sep 269/26at Michigan StateMSUNEB −3.5NEB −4.5W 31–1366NEB · W
Sat, Oct 310/3MarylandMDNEB −18.0NEB −14.5W 48–2378NEB · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10IndianaIUNEB +4.3NEB +7.5L 17–2042NEB · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at OregonORENEB +4.4NEB +7.0L 14–1746NEB · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31WashingtonWASHNEB −9.9NEB −7.5NEB −7.5Pass
Fri, Nov 611/6at IllinoisILLNEB −6.8—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at RutgersRUTGNEB −21.1—wk 11
Fri, Nov 2711/27at IowaIOWANEB PK—wk 13

Model on NEB games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 2–2 · home 2–0, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +3.9 · closer than the market 3 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.05–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 4.8
Bowl (6+)93%
9+ wins6%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 3.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP1%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1540th
Success rate43.9%60th
Pass EPA+0.1454th
Rush EPA+0.1721st
Explosive rate13.5%50th
Quality-drive rate51.4%67th
Points per quality drive5.010th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.166th
Success allowed33.3%3rd
Pass EPA allowed−0.255th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0437th
Explosive allowed9.8%22nd
Havoc rate17.4%13th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.4110th
Turnover margin+435th · exp. +3.5
Field position margin0.0 yd77th
Hidden points / game+3.8banked
Luck, wins−0.35.3 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 7–0
Rush rate over expected−2.7%84th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+12.317th
Schedule played+1.556th
Schedule remaining+6.936th
Full schedule+4.049th
Pregame expected wins3.1of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 17th · +12.3Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)OhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUNEBgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Nebraskaoff +0.15 40thdef −0.16 allowed · 6th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.